According to reports from Syria, the Eurasian country could have recruited hundreds of Syrian mercenaries to assist Azerbaijan in its confrontation with Armenia over the disputed territory

Turkey and its interventionist policy: could it now focus on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

photo_camera REUTERS/Presidential Press Service via AP - The President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Turkey has been pursuing an expansionist policy in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East for months through interventions such as those in the wars in Libya and Syria. Precisely, reports are coming in from Syrian territory that the Ottoman nation has allegedly recruited hundreds of Syrian mercenaries to support the Muslim nation that is a friend of Azerbaijan in the clash between it and Armenia within the framework of the dispute between Azeris and Armenians for control of the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, whose population is mostly Armenian and rejects Azeri authority despite the fact that in the times of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) this enclave was part of the Azerbaijani Soviet Socialist Republic.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey, is thus continuing with his strategy of gaining positions in the Mediterranean and Middle East in order to obtain a better geostrategic position and also to gain control of the exploitation of hydrocarbon resources in the eastern Mediterranean. The Eurasian nation took part in the war in Libya by offering to support the National Accord Government of Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj in its fight against the Libyan National Army of Marshal Khalifa Haftar. In the conflict in the North African country, Turkey has even assigned paid mercenaries from Syria to groups allegedly linked in the past to terrorist organisations such as Daesh and al-Qaeda. This intervention in the Libyan country was forged following the agreement signed by Erdogan and Sarraj at the end of last year securing Turkish military support for the Tripoli government and dividing up exclusive economic zones in the Mediterranean that are valuable for their oil and gas resources; these were denounced by the European Union and countries such as Greece and Cyprus for violating certain maritime borders. Turkey also entered Syrian territory on the pretext of harassing the Kurds, whom it accuses of carrying out terrorist acts in the south of the Turkish country. From there, the Ottoman army has been settling on the Turkish-Syrian border for months in order to establish checkpoints, thereby confronting the regime of President Bashar al-Asad, who, supported by Russia, is attempting to advance to topple the last rebel bastion of Idlib, where elements linked to Jihadism take refuge. This action is being hindered by the Turkish opposition. 

The data on the alleged transfer of Syrian mercenaries to Nagorno-Karabakh were published on social networks last week and were shared by the refugees, the Syrian opposition and various analysts. Turkish and Greek media encouraged rumours on the issue. 

Turkey has recently intensified its rhetoric against Armenia, accusing the Caucasian nation of "playing with fire" and recruiting "terrorists". The new discourse may serve Ankara to justify a new participation in a conflict, in this case by supporting Azerbaijan in the Caucasus; a struggle into which it would enter using the formula already used in Libya, that is, sending paid soldiers from the Syrian war to the Armenian-Azeri border. This initiative could have served Turkey's geostrategic interests and also diverted attention from and generated a common enemy for the nation in view of the loss of support the regime of Recep Tayyip Erdogan is experiencing within the country due to the social discontent it is experiencing as a result of the economic crisis and the problems suffered from the impact of the coronavirus health crisis, which it has not managed to tackle. 

At the end of July, the Turkish Minister of Defence, Hulusi Akar, promised to "avenge" the Azeri soldiers killed in the clashes with Armenia. Moreover, on 22 September, the Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Çavusoglu demanded that Armenia should stop its "aggression" against Azerbaijan. "Ankara is on the side of Azerbaijan... and may God have mercy on the soldiers who fell recently", the Ottoman minister said. 

For years, Turkey has allegedly wanted to recruit Syrian rebels as a way to transform the situation in Syria in the service of its foreign policy. In this line, groups like Legion al-Sham, then the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian National Army were linked to the Erdogan regime within this strategy.

In recent hours, Azerbaijan and Armenia have intensified their dispute over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, with attacks that both sides attribute to each other. The latest armed clashes have left an undetermined number of victims; and the president of the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, Arayik Harutyunyan, has imposed martial law with a view to "the general mobilisation of people over 18", after calling an extraordinary session of the National Assembly.

Imagen de efectivos pro-turcos publicada por Lindsay Snell

The latest fighting started early in the morning, according to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence. Official Azeri sources indicated that the Armenian Armed Forces had attacked Azerbaijani military positions in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, leaving several dead and wounded, although it was not specified how many. "At 06:00 (local time), Armenian forces carried out a large-scale provocation by subjecting Azeri army positions along the front and our villages in the border area to intense bombardment with large-calibre weapons, mortars and artillery," the former Soviet republic's defence ministry said in an official statement. 

Azerbaijan has stated that its army is "responding with measures to stop enemy provocation and to ensure the safety of civilians living near the front", according to the Sputnik media.

For his part, the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinian, pointed out instead that the enemy had launched an "offensive on Artsaj", the Armenian name for the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. "The defence forces are successfully resisting the offensive," Pashinian said on the Facebook social network. The Ministry of Defence of the Caucasian nation said they had shot down two helicopters and three Azeri drones in Nagorno-Karabakh. "The fighting continues," added ministerial spokesperson Shushan Stepanian on the same social network.

Meanwhile, the spokesman for the government of the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, Vargram Pogosian, confirmed that the capital, Stepanakert, and several towns of his own had come under artillery fire and said there would be a "proportionate" response, urging the population to "seek refuge".

By mid July, clashes had already taken place in the area separating the Azeri region of Tovuz from the Armenian province of Tavush, near Georgia (also a former Soviet republic), several hundred kilometres from Nagorno-Karabakh, which has been a focus of confrontation between the two former Soviet republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan since 1988.

In this scenario, Ankara reiterated its support for Azerbaijan in the face of the Armenian aggression in the early hours of Sunday morning, and many officials and the Turkish foreign ministry declared their unwavering support for their ally. Thus, high officials of Turkey condemned the Armenian attacks against Azerbaijani civilians. In an official statement, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Armenia is organising another provocation.

"We condemn in the strongest terms the Armenian attack, which is a flagrant violation of international law and has caused civilian victims. With these attacks, Armenia has once again demonstrated that it is the biggest obstacle on the road to peace and stability in the region," the official note added. 

"Azerbaijan will, of course, use its legitimate right of self-defence to protect its civilians and its territorial integrity. In this process, Turkey's support for Azerbaijan is unwavering. However, if Azerbaijan wants us to support them, we will do so", the ministerial communication added. 

Azerbaijan insists on recovering its territorial integrity, while Armenia defends the interests of the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, which has a majority Armenian population. The conflict escalated in April 2016, and although a new ceasefire was agreed, sporadic clashes continue to occur in the border area. This is an area where there have always been refusals to negotiate. 

The dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh began in 1988, when this Armenian-majority territory decided to secede from the then Soviet Socialist Republic of Azerbaijan, which was itself part of the USSR. Baku lost control of Karabakh and seven adjacent districts following the heavy fighting with Yerevan in 1992 and 1994.

In order to seek a negotiated solution to the conflict, the so-called Minsk Group (Belarus), co-chaired by the United States, Russia and France, was set up in 1994. This group also includes Belarus, Finland, Germany, Italy, Sweden and Turkey, as well as Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the leadership of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

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