Turkey could be a major beneficiary of Russia-Ukraine tension
The international community remains very attentive to all developments between Russia and Ukraine. The risk of conflict seems to be growing and some analysts warn that Vladimir Putin may have a possible invasion in mind by the end of the first month of 2022. Moscow has reportedly massed 100,000 troops along the entire border with Ukraine, according to Western intelligence agencies, in anticipation of a possible outbreak of violence. Meanwhile, the climate of tension along the border is only increasing and neighbouring countries are looking at the region with a sidelong glance, looking for ways to capitalise on the situation.
If there is one person who cannot let this opportunity pass him by, it is Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey's president is going through his most difficult days at the helm of the Ottoman country, and his good relations with Kiev and Moscow could make him play an important role in this conflict. From a mediating position between the two sides to arms sales to the two governments. The depreciation of Turkey's currency has sunk the country's economy, which sees this confrontation as an opportunity to recover part of what the COVID-19 pandemic has taken away from it in financial terms.
Turkey has long been working on a plan to build its own fighter jets, an initiative prompted in part by the US blockade on the sale of the F-35 because of Ankara's dealings with Moscow over the S-400 anti-aircraft defence system. Russia wants to be part of the development of new combat vehicles that Erdogan's government is working on, which in turn could, once these aircraft are produced, sell them to Ukraine for use in the conflict with the Russians. This is a complex and high-risk strategy, nothing that the Turkish leader is not used to.
As in many other matters, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is playing a dual role in this dispute. On the one hand, he claims that Moscow's annexation of Crimea was an "illegal and illegitimate" act, but at the same time, Turkish ships loaded with construction materials continue to sail the waters off the peninsula. Ankara shows one face in public and the complete opposite in private - nothing new. While talking about Kiev's sovereignty over Crimea, it continues to buy coal from Ukrainian mines exported to Russia, which in turn sends it to Turkey.
The Turkish regime offered a 'mediation service' on as many as three occasions late last month. This offer is seen by some experts, such as Serbian political analyst Nikola Mikovic, as a sign of Erdogan's ambition. His intention is to position himself as a regional leader, a 'saviour' of the conflict. Turkey has strong interests in the Black Sea, one of the main reasons why it does not want to lose its friendship with Ukraine, which in turn helps to counter the expansion of Russian influence in the region.
The Turkish government is looking to foreign policy to improve its image due to the loss of popularity shown in the polls as a result of the country's economic situation. The Kremlin rejected Turkey's mediating position on the grounds that it is 'not a party to the conflict in Donbas', but Ukraine maintains the condition of not reaching any kind of secret agreement, although Turkey and Russia's track record of negotiating behind the backs of other parties does not leave much room for optimism, as exemplified by the conflicts in Syria and Libya.
