Turkey's presence in Syria is “illegal”, according to the International Commission on Human Rights

“The presence of the Turkish army on Syrian soil is illegal”, the Middle East coordinator of the International Human Rights Commission (IHRC), Haitham Abu Said, denounced in statements to the Russian media, Sputnik. “In fact, it is an occupation [...] and Ankara has no right to dictate its will to Damascus”, he added.

The official also said that “only the Syrian army is responsible for liberating the territory of its country” and that “no other army should carry out military operations in Syria”. 

These statements come at a time when the Government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan is increasing its number of troops and military equipment on Syrian territory, specifically in Idlib - one of the last rebel strongholds - to deal with the successive counter-offensives launched by Bachar al-Asad's Syrian Arab Army and with the support of Moscow. In fact, as reported on Monday by the IHLAS news agency (IHA), a military convoy of 50 vehicles has arrived in Idlib province.  According to Sky News Arabia, the new deployment consists of eight tanks, 12 armored personnel carriers, 22 armored vehicles, five trucks and three bulldozers.

This Sunday, it was revealed that about 65 vehicles of the Turkish Armed Forces had entered the south of Idlib, in the area of Jabal al-Zawiya. In all, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) estimates that, from 2 February to date, “the number of Turkish military trucks and vehicles that arrived in the area increased to more than 2,765, while some 7,600 Turkish soldiers were deployed”.
 

Turkey has also requested the support of the United States, which has been asked to send Patriot air defence systems to be installed on its southern border. The American giant has not yet responded, but it is expected that it will continue to maintain a neutral position in the contest due to its conflict of interests, since it has traditionally supported the Kurdish-Syrian militias, enemies of the Erdogan government.

Russia, for its part, has once again accused the Eurasian country's executive of “supplying terrorists in the Syrian city of Idlib, along with ammunition and military equipment”, which violates the 2018 Sochi agreement, which established a demilitarised zone of between 15 and 20 kilometres in north-west Syria and agreed to the withdrawal of all heavy weapons. “The documents signed by President Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan stipulated Turkey's commitment to ensure the withdrawal of heavy weapons [...] But so far terrorists continue to receive support in Idlib in the form of ammunition and military equipment”, Russian Presidency spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Russia 1.

However, hours later, in an interview with TASS, the official expressed the hope that relations with the Eurasian country would not be plunged “into dark territory, where there are extremely negative scenarios”, although he admitted that this week had been “absolutely unsettling”.

It should also be noted that the tensions between the two powers - Ankara and Moscow - could start to have consequences on other aspects. Turkish analyst Muharrem Sarikaya revealed in Habertük on Sunday that Turkey could even “block Russia's entry into the Bosphorus Strait”. “The first option of what will happen if there is no consensus at the table with Moscow is a change in the implementation of the Montreux contract”, the expert explains. The aforementioned agreement stipulates that the Turkish government has the authority to block the passage of Russian ships if it considers itself threatened with an imminent danger of war.

Meanwhile, the Syrian Army continues to regain positions in the Idlib region. According to SOHR, they have captured three new villages south of the area, Rakaya, Hantutin and Sheikh Damis. The London-based organization has also revealed that Russian aviation has carried out more than 130 attacks on the villages of Kafr Nubl, Kafr Sakhna and Ishim in the last few hours. In addition, in the town of Almastumah, just 6 kilometres from the city of Idlib, Moscow has bombed several Turkish checkpoints. “The attack has inflicted heavy losses on the positions of Turkish troops and their terrorist allies in the region”, various local media have detailed.

“Ankara-backed armed and extremist groups used these checkpoints as a launching pad for attacks on government positions and then were able to emerge unscathed from the response of Syrian troops”, these sources have explained.

It now remains to be seen whether the rapid progress being made by Al-Asad's forces, together with the military casualties being suffered by Turkey - 16 soldiers killed so far - will force Erdogan to change his strategy and start thinking about a withdrawal, given that this would be the logical step in the face of the loss of positions. However, the Turkish president's ambition seems to have no limits, which has been demonstrated by his increased military presence. Moreover, for a source with “close ties” to the president, “a retreat in Idlib would indicate that Turkey could withdraw on several fronts, such as Libya. That's why Ankara's determination is at the levels where it would not hesitate to take the crisis to the next level”, explains Ahval in the local newspaper.

With this scenario on the table, the leaders of Turkey, Russia and France have agreed to meet on March 5 - presumably in Istanbul - to seek a détente that will allow work on the new roadmap for Syria, aimed at ending the civil war that broke out in 2011.