UN fears severe global tourism losses in 2020 will continue into 2021

Global tourism, which lost 2.4 trillion dollars in 2020 due to the pandemic, will lose between 1.7 and 2.4 trillion this year, or between 1.9 and 2.7% of world GDP, according to the UN in a report presented on Wednesday, which estimates that this range for Spain is between 1.4 and 2.3%.

Global tourism, which lost 2.4 trillion dollars in 2020 due to the pandemic, will again lose between 1.7 and 2.4 trillion in 2021, or between 1.9 and 2.7% of world GDP. In Spain, one of the world's main destinations, this could mean a drop of between 1.4 and 2.3% of its GDP, according to a report presented by the United Nations Agency for Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The report, prepared in collaboration with the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), projects that this impact will result in an average 5.5% increase in unskilled labour unemployment globally, a percentage that could rise to 15% in countries highly dependent on tourism.

The report considers three possible scenarios: the first, in which tourist arrivals fall by the same percentage in 2021 as in 2020 (74% compared to pre-pandemic levels), a more optimistic one in which the reduction is 63%, and a two-speed scenario, due to the uneven progress of vaccination between countries.

This third scenario, which expects tourism to recover partially in Europe or North America, but not yet in developing regions, estimates arrivals to fall by only 37% in places with a high percentage of vaccinated populations, but still plummet by 75% in those with lower levels of immunisation.

Tourism losses in 2020 and 2021, which would total more than $4 trillion if forecasts are realised, would far exceed the figures UNCTAD estimated last year, when it predicted a maximum of $3.3 trillion lost in what was then seen as a "worst-case scenario", one with 12 months of health crisis.

Fifteen months after the pandemic was declared, and with many countries still applying containment and international flights still limited, UNCTAD fears that 2021 will not be much better than 2020, at least in the global average, although there may be some upturn in the second half of the year in areas such as Europe and the United States.

UN agencies insist on vaccination campaigns as the main factor in whether tourism recovery will come sooner or later to a country, at a time when while some nations have already managed to immunise about two-thirds of their population, others have not even reached one per cent.

"Tourism is a lifeline for millions of people and making progress on vaccination to protect communities and safely resume tourism is critical to job recovery, especially in developing countries," UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili warned at a press conference.

Even under different scenarios, UNCTAD and UNWTO do not expect the global tourism sector to return to pre-pandemic levels before 2023 or even 2024.

"The main obstacles are travel restrictions, slow containment of the virus, low travel confidence and a poor economic environment," analyses UNCTAD.

Although the pandemic has increased domestic tourism, the report stresses that this does not benefit many developing countries that depend on international travellers.

By country, the report indicates that the most affected in relative levels by the continued fall in tourism in 2021 could be Turkey and Ecuador, given the importance of the sector in their gross domestic product (GDP), which could fall by up to 9% in both cases, according to the most pessimistic forecast.

The reduction in GDP could be as much as 2.4% in Argentina, 2.3% in Colombia and 2.1% in the United States, according to the report, which forecasts negative figures in all the countries and regions studied.

To try to cope with these losses, UNCTAD recommends working to "restore traveller confidence" by continuing vaccination and promoting health certificates, as well as rapid and affordable tests to facilitate movement.

It also advises fiscal and protective measures to mitigate the socio-economic effects on many workers in the sector, although it admits that "many businesses will not survive, even when travel restrictions are lifted".

UNCTAD predicts a reduction in demand for the cruise sector, an increase in domestic tourism in traditional source regions (Europe, North America, China) and recommends that developing economies consider new economic alternatives to the tourism sector.