What is at stake in the Upper Karabakh conflict?
The struggle between Armenians and Azeris keeps intensifying in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Soviet Union used to be a network of countless nationalities, peoples, languages and cultural traditions. The centuries that the Russian and Soviet empires controlled the vast Caucasus were not enough to eliminate the conflicts that had plagued this mountainous region, which is home to a great deal of religious, linguistic and cultural diversity, in a territory bordered by Russia, Turkey, Iran and the Caspian and Black Seas. There are currently three internationally recognised countries in the region, namely Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, but the regional struggles between and within these states continue to be extremely important today.
Only Georgia, the northern neighbour, has two major regional conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and in its limited experience as an independent country it has already clashed militarily with Russia on one occasion. The relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan is equally complex owing to a fundamental problem, the establishment of the borders. These two countries had not been independent until the collapse of the USSR and had previously only managed to become republics under the control of Moscow. The two peoples had mixed over the centuries, with large Armenian populations in mostly Azerbaijani areas and vice versa. This complicated situation eventually erupted over one region: Upper Karabakh.
This Armenian-majority area was surrounded by Azerbaijani inhabitants. The Azeris make up the majority of Azerbaijan's population, which is mostly Muslim and Turkic in origin, extending also into north-western Iran. The Upper Karabakh Armenians tried unsuccessfully to get Moscow to unite this region with Armenia during the Soviet Union period, with constant requests to Moscow that were ignored. During the final years of the USSR, conflicts between these two communities began to flare up, with a growing Armenian demand for autonomy in Upper Karabakh and the beginning of ethnic clashes between Armenians and Azeris.
By 1991, Azerbaijan, now an independent country, withdrew its autonomy from the Upper Karabakh region, leading the regional parliament to call a referendum on independence which it won overwhelmingly in the area, with the Azeri minority boycotting. By January 1992 Upper Karabakh declared itself independent, kicking off an armed confrontation which continued until 1994. The new republic not only managed to maintain independence, but also conquered a strip of land connecting to Armenia, expelling the Azeri populations living there. In this way, the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, currently called the Republic of Artsaj, which is not recognised by any country and is dependent on Armenia, was consolidated. The war costs 30,000 deaths and a million refugees due to the expulsion of Armenians living in Azerbaijan and Azeris living in Armenia.
This regional confrontation has been resurrected in recent months due to the border clashes between Azerbaijan and the Republic of Artsaj, supported by Armenia. Repeated attempts to find a solution to the international dispute since the ceasefire of 1994 have failed. The Minsk Group was set up in 1992 to seek a solution to the conflict under the leadership of France, Russia and the United States, without reaching a peace agreement. Furthermore, Washington has progressively disengaged itself from the confrontation, more concerned about other regional scenarios. The 2007 Madrid Principles for a peaceful solution to the conflict also ended up failing, owing to the lack of understanding between the parties and the scant international intervention. Border incidents in the region are constant, leaving a trail of deaths from armed clashes over the past decades.
Ararat, the sacred mountain of Armenia present in the national coat of arms, is on Turkish territory. Today, the Armenians occupy a territory that represents a small part of the vast domains they occupied 2,000 years ago, when they had access to three seas: the Mediterranean, the Black and the Caspian. They have no access to any of them today. They were the first state to adopt Christianity, in 301 AD, establishing their particular Vatican in Echmiadzín, which represents the holy city of the Armenians. Historically they have been in favour of Russia in opposition to the Turkish domination of the region, which perpetrated a genocide on the Armenians in 1915, which is still denied by the Turkish authorities.
Alberto Priego, in his article for the CIDOB Foundation ‘La persistente fragilidad del Cáucaso: La “crisis de abril” de Nagorno-Karabaj’ ('The persistent fragility of the Caucasus: The "April crisis" of Nagorno-Karabakh'), summarises in 2016 the interests of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the border conflicts. Armenia is the least economically developed country in the region since the fall of the Soviet Union, and is heavily dependent on Moscow for energy and economic resources, as it has a major military base on Armenian territory. The political elite had been dominated by politicians from the Republic of Artsaj, until the revolution that brought Nikol Pashinian to power. The prime minister again sought confrontation and nationalism rather than a negotiated solution to the conflict. In order to conceal the significant social frictions in the country and the economic impact of the pandemic, Armenian nationalism has been stirred up, which has facilitated armed confrontation.
Since independence, Azerbaijan has been controlled by the Aliyev family, first by the father Heydar and now by the son Ilham. The lack of political freedoms has been offset by the wealth of hydrocarbons, which have enabled the country's economic development and significant investment in the armed forces, which are clearly superior to those of the Armenians. The drop in oil prices and the adverse effects of the pandemic have led the Azerbaijani regime to attempt to seek its legitimacy through military confrontation, thereby diverting popular interest from social problems. Azerbaijan, which suffered national humiliation as a result of the 1994 ceasefire, is now seeking to improve its strategic position owing to military superiority, which was bought with hydrocarbon money.
Russia is one of the main regional players in the Caucasus, as the country has been present in the area for several centuries. Historically, the Armenians have relied on Russia's help vis-à-vis Turkey, a relationship that continues to be essential today. Russia has a military base on Armenian territory, a country that belongs to the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), promoted from Moscow. Thus, any attack on Armenian territory would force Russia to intervene to favour its ally. The Republic of Artsaj is not directly part of Armenia, and Russia has therefore not been obliged to intervene directly. Furthermore, its interests are divided, as both Armenia and Azerbaijan are two important customers for Russian arms exports. In this conflict Putin is attempting to limit the escalation of a confrontation that is not among his priorities, with calls for both sides to sit down at the negotiating table.
As for Turkey, it has been shifting its tone and involvement in the conflict over the past few years. This front joins the other scenarios in which it has already clashed with Russia, such as in Syria and Libya. Turkey's renewed expansionist policy seeks a new dominant role for the country in the region. Its historical links with Azerbaijan have determined its support for this country from the outset of the clashes. Ankara has been selling arms and training Azerbaijani military cadres for years. On this new front with Russia, Erdogan has raised his tone in his latest appearances with respect to the conflict, though it is not likely for him to intervene directly, which would mean crossing a red line in relations with Russia. Another fundamental element is the energy sphere, as the Caspian Sea that bathes Azerbaijan has significant hydrocarbon reserves that need to find their way through this complex region to Europe, the main export market.
Wojlciech Jaglielski, a Polish journalist covering this and other conflicts in the Caucasus after the fall of the Soviet Union, relates very well in his book "Good Place to Die: Stories of Caucasus", the mentality of the local people during the beginning of the conflict in the 1990s. Hamo, an Armenian from Stepanakert, capital of the Republic of Artsaj, said: "The point was that they wanted to destroy all of us. It was not only for the land, what they really wanted was for every single one of us to disappear (...). To tell the truth, war never broke out; it has always been there". For her part, Aga Sani, of Azeri origin, stated: "The point was that the Armenians did not want to live in peace with us, nor have they ever wanted to. They think they are better and wiser (...). This is our country, Azerbaijan, and they want to take away part of our territory". Almost 30 years after the outbreak of the armed struggle, the positions remain the same in a cyclical conflict that has no sign of ending in the region. This ceasefire is only the prelude to the next confrontation.
