The Speaker of the House of Representatives is touring Asia amid growing tensions with China

Why does Nancy Pelosi go to Taiwan?

photo_camera TWITTER/@SpeakerPelosi - Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi with Singapore's Foreign Minister during her Asian tour

Taiwanese and US government sources told US broadcaster CNN that the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Democrat Nancy Pelosi, will travel to Taiwan during her tour of Asia. 

Pelosi's visit would go against White House recommendations. "It's not a good idea right now," said President Joe Biden, who had a lengthy phone conversation with his counterpart Xi Jinping on the issue of independence and sovereignty for the island that Beijing claims as its own under its "One China" programme. 

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian did not clarify at a press conference what the consequences would be for the United States if Pelosi's plane were to land in Taiwan, but the Chinese Defence Ministry has previously stated that the armed forces "will not sit idly by" if the visit of the person who would be the highest US institutional official to visit Taiwan in the last 25 years were to take place. 

Xi Jinping y Joe Biden tensión en Taiwán

It is clear to both the Washington and Beijing governments that this is not the time to strain relations despite the latest qualifications that NATO's new Strategic Concept dedicates to the Asian giant. The context of the war in Ukraine and the direct clash between Russia and the United States now occupy the powers. Nancy Pelosi does not seem to be fully aligned with this vision. 

The Speaker's agenda does not include a visit to Taiwan. There is a visit to Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan. Pelosi is joined by the chairmen of the Foreign Affairs and Veterans' Affairs committees, Gregory Meeks and Mark Takano, as well as three other members of the economic and defence committees. 

Consulted by ATALAYAR, Juan Tovar Ruiz, professor of International Relations at the University of Burgos and expert in US foreign policy, considers that, if Speaker Pelosi really intends to go to Taiwan, this will happen despite the White House's refusal. "If she sees fit, she has every right to travel to the island, even if it harms the Administration's foreign policy, which is currently in the hands of her own party," adds Tovar Ruiz.

Differences between the legislative and executive branches in the United States would not be uncommon. According to Tovar Ruiz, Biden is known for scrupulously respecting the freedom of Congress. Pelosi's decision would not be out of character for the White House, and unless something stops the Speaker of the House at the last minute, the visit will take place in one format or another.  Tovar Ruiz rules out bluffing on the part of the US to feel out China, and believes that the Speaker of the House of Representatives really does intend to travel all the way to Taipei.

Lim Yik-Fei, The New York Times - Helicópteros AH-64 Apache y CH-47 Chinook taiwaneses  desfilan en Taipéi el pasado 5 de octubre

"Nancy Pelosi has always been very critical of China. Not only on human rights issues, but also on trade policy even before the arrival of Trump", says Tovar Ruiz. "Perhaps the only thing that could make him change his mind is not wanting to damage his party's foreign policy", adds the expert. 

"China is the great challenge and threat to the United States, and on this issue Pelosi has always had great convictions. She is a person who throughout her career in terms of political leadership has always been very courageous. I understand that by supporting the Taiwan cause she can gain some political benefit. Not so much personal, but for the cause", continues Juan Tovar Ruiz in relation to the reasons that would motivate the Speaker of the House to come to Taiwan despite the climate of tension between the United States and China. 

Some US media speculate that, at the end of her official agenda, Pelosi could make a private visit to Taipei, the capital of Taiwan, on board a commercial plane. Tovar Ruiz describes this as "an attempt to ease tensions with China". The visit by the second in line to the presidency would still have symbolic value and would not be a substantial change even if China were satisfied with this shift in US dialectics. 

Although nothing has been officially confirmed, the same sources revealed Pelosi's intention to travel to Taiwan, assuring that she will meet with the Prime Minister of the Taiwanese government, Su Tseng-chang. She may also meet with President Tsai Ing-wen.

According to the pro-government Chinese and Taiwanese media, both powers are reportedly mobilising military assets at sea and on their coasts. At the same time that 300,000 people on the internet are monitoring the flight path of the US Air Force SPAR19 that left Kuala Lumpur at 15h40 UTC+8, worrying images are circulating on networks of a large number of armoured vehicles of the Taiwanese armed forces moving towards the island's coasts. At around 19h00 local Taiwanese time, the authorities even reported a bomb scare at Taipei airport. 

If the outlook is worrying, Juan Tovar Ruiz believes that the consequences of the possible visit will be slight. "Military manoeuvres in proximity to the island", the expert comments, and rules out any significant military escalation leading to armed conflict.

Americas Coordinator: José Antonio Sierra. 

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