Belarus: Europe is also fighting for democracy
This summer, Cuba is in the news because of its citizens' demands for freedom and democracy in the face of existing economic hardship, which has intensified with the COVID. In this way, Cuba joins Venezuela, Colombia and Chile on the list of Latin American countries where in recent years there have been popular protests in favour of democracy.
A year ago, however, these protests were concentrated in one country on the European continent (yes, you read that right, Europe): Belarus. Next month it will be a year since presidential elections were held in this buffer country between Russia, the EU and NATO (bordering Poland and the Baltic States to the west), as well as bordering Ukraine, the current battleground between Moscow and the West, to the south.
As I said, it has been a year since many of us discovered this country and its leader, Alexander Lukashenko, a man with a grim face and a taste for spectacle and provocation (remember the moment when he stepped out of the helicopter with a Kalashnikov in his hand after flying over the demonstrations against his re-election)? Who is Lukashenko and how did he come to power?, is he really a friend of Russia, who are those opponents he detains, such as the lawyer Roman Protasevich, whose plane was diverted in May this year? By answering these questions, we will better understand the Belarusian reality beyond the traditional stereotypes that affect the Western view of Eastern Europe.
Alexander Lukashenko is the most reliable example of a Soviet-style leader. Former head of a kolkhoz (Soviet state farms) and one of the few leaders who voted against the dissolution of the USSR1, he came to power in 1994 with a vehement campaign against the corruption of the young Belarusian elite. Nostalgia for the order of Soviet times also played in his favour, for of all the European republics that made up the USSR, it was in Minsk that there was the greatest attachment to the hammer and sickle, unlike its neighbours. Lukashenko has been able to exploit this sentiment, setting himself up as the guarantor of order in the face of the chaos that (in his eyes) a democratic transition would entail. An example of this thinking is the fact that he appointed himself batka (father) of the Belarusians, as if he alone knew what was best for his citizens (as we can see, he has not been a good father).
His fondness for the times of the USSR leads us to wonder about his relations with Moscow, especially whether he is a friend of Putin, with whom he shares an allergy to any hint of democracy and a taste for power. At first glance, it could be said that the two are good partners, as it is very common to see them meeting in Sochi (on Russia's Black Sea coast) strolling and playing ice hockey2. Behind this bucolism lies a relationship of mutual antagonism and dependence. As mentioned above, Belarus is a country with a key strategic position for both Moscow and Europe, acting as a buffer between the two. Moreover, there is an agreement for a union between the two countries, signed in 1999. This does not mean that Lukashenko - who, as we have seen, likes power - wants to join Moscow. Indeed, since Putin came to the Kremlin, he has been increasingly reluctant to implement the agreement. It is important to note that in the year the pact was signed (1999), Russia was still ruled by the weak Yeltsin, while Lukashenko was still at the dawn of his de facto dictatorship. Lukashenko thought he could hold on to power without becoming a puppet of Moscow. Under Putin the situation has been reversed, and to complicate matters further, Moscow seems increasingly interested in the idea of union, both to bolster its weakened popularity within Russia and to further threaten NATO, as the hypothetical merger would put Russian troops directly on the Polish and Baltic borders.
To counter the bear hug, Lukashenko has played the double game of being a friend of the West and Russia when things went badly with one. The year 2020 exemplified this: in June, an agreement was reached with Brussels to facilitate visas for Belarusian citizens wishing to enter EU territory3. The tables were turned from August of that year, with Lukashenko moving closer to Moscow again, as seen on 29 May 2021 with the traditional 'brothers' photo in Sochi, shortly after the incident with Protasevich. The sanctions imposed by the EU indicate that Minsk will maintain 'friendship' with Moscow, although it remains to be seen what happens in the remainder of the year, as there may be surprises in store.
Protasevich's arrest shows that the opposition in Belarus is still active, despite the fierce repression it suffered after the August 2020 elections. What is surprising is her ability to reorganise in the face of adversity, as Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the most visible face of the opposition to Lukashenko, was a simple mother and English teacher, not interested in politics. In fact, the only link she had to Lukashenko is that her husband, Sergei Tikhanovsky, is a well-known youtuber and activist arrested in May 2020. It was his arrest that prompted her entry into politics, especially by contacting women in the same situation as her, such as activist Maria Kolesnikova and Veronika Tsepkalo (the latter the wife of Valeri Tsepkalo, another Lukashenko critic who was prevented from running in the elections).
But this gesture has come at a very high price, as Tikhanovskaya has gone into exile in Lithuania with her children at the risk of arrest, after being threatened by the secret police (which is called the KGB, like its Soviet counterpart). Kolesnikova is in prison and Tsepkalo - like Tikhanovskaya - has had to leave the country. All this shows that, in Europe, those who fight for democracy run the same risks as their counterparts in Cuba and Venezuela.
In conclusion, Belarus - a country that made headlines last year for presidential election fraud - is still relevant one year later, showing that there are still places in Europe where democracy has yet to be won. Lukashenko - its tyrannical leader - is a legacy of the USSR, coming to power in the 1990s with an anti-corruption discourse and nostalgia for Soviet-era order. In geopolitical terms, Belarus has been able to exploit its position as a buffer between Russia and the West, shrewdly playing the game of allying itself with one bloc when it did badly with the other. However, there is a possibility that Moscow could use the current crisis between Minsk and Brussels to complete the union between the two countries, something that could happen under the treaty signed in 1999.
Finally, Belarusian events are a test of tenacity in the face of adversity. The current opposition against Lukashenko is made up of women who a year ago were not expected to lead the opposition. Their courage and the hard price they have had to pay show that the struggle for democracy is just as dangerous in Europe as in other continents, something we should not forget.
- Estonia, Letonia, Lituania, Bielorrusia y Moldavia.
- Este deporte es muy popular en Europa del Este.
- Véase Visa Facilitation and Readmission: the agreements between the European Union and Belarus enter into force | Migration and Home Affairs (europa.eu) y EUR-Lex - 22020A0609(02) - EN - EUR-Lex (europa.eu)