Opinion

Doing Lula a favour

photo_camera lula-da-silva-brasil

The fact that Lula da Silva narrowly won his third presidential term does not detract one iota from the legitimacy of his victory and his right to govern and implement, in accordance with the legal procedures in force, his electoral programme. That this election, however, mathematically quantified the division of a polarised and divided country is also incontestable evidence. And that, in the face of this evidence, the leader of the Workers' Party was not going to have an easy legislature, given that he is also in a minority in Parliament, foreshadowed four years of continuous political turbulence. 

In the simplification of this combat in such a polarised scenario, Jair Bolsonaro's followers and voters were immediately assimilated in their entirety to the extreme right, immediately deriving an equivalence that groups all Bolsonaristas under the generic epigraph of "fascists". In the current times there is little room for nuance, so that both citizens of liberal convictions, as well as those who are conservative, those who, being rather centre-left, do not agree with totalitarian temptations, and even many millions of those who managed to get out of poverty and fear returning to it, if they voted for Bolsonaro, are marked by the epithet applied to them by their adversaries. 

Of the sixty million citizens who voted for Bolsonaro, a few hundred followed the slogans of who knows who to storm the Square of the Three Powers in Brasilia, occupying the headquarters of the Supreme Federal Court, the Congress and the Presidency, causing a great deal of damage in the process. This disastrous re-enactment of what happened two years ago in the United States with the storming of Congress by Donald Trump's exalted supporters was profusely broadcast live around the world, provoking disgust and disappointment in every sensible and democratic spectator. And, of course, it prompted international condemnation from governments across the political spectrum around the world. 

Partly following the handbook of what happened in Washington, the assailants were shouting against Lula, calling for the intervention of the army to overthrow him, after the military had also failed to act to prevent him from even taking office. 

Failures, unpredictability and exemplary punishments

The president, who was on an official trip to Sao Paulo, the country's economic capital on the day of the attack, not only ordered the arrest of the ringleaders and promised a thorough investigation to uncover the masterminds and instigators of the vandalism, but also promised "exemplary punishment" for the culprits. To do this, all that is needed is to apply the pro-Bolsonar laws, which provide for very harsh criminal sentences for this type of behaviour. 

However, it is striking that, given the political panorama described, Brazilian intelligence did not foresee an action of this nature, and had the corresponding preventive measures and sufficient police resources to contain the avalanche. It is a brutal failure, which makes it easier for President Lula to dress himself up as a "victim" and point the finger at a legislative power suspected of "bolsonarismo", a term that has already been consecrated as equal to extreme right-wing extremism, equal to fascism. 

The expectation fed in all the media that the military would accede to the requests for intervention is not going to happen, which will surely also cause disappointment on the extreme left in Latin America (and probably also in Europe), because it does not underline the alleged coup alliance between the extreme right and the army, which would consecrate the return to the capitalism-communism antagonism of the 20th century. 

I dare to say that, fortunately, there will not be a coup d'état in Brazil, at least not in this legislature that has just begun, and that the active Armed Forces will do their duty. The nuance is important, because the military that would presumably support a forceful action are all in the reserves. But, in the collective imagination, the assault perpetrated in Brasilia reinforces and fixes the image that the liberal-conservative forces are subsumed in an extreme right-wing coup. This in turn allows the left's offensive throughout Latin America, which tends to give in to totalitarian temptations, changing constitutions and extending the terms of office of dictator-presidents, to be largely, if not completely, diffused, all of it impregnated with an unmistakable Castro-Bolivarian whiff of Castroism. 

Unlike in the 20th century, today such drastic changes are no longer made by bayonet blows, but by the precise actions of controlled and manipulated groups, but where the fundamental thing is communication and the amplification of images of such events. In this case, the assailants of the institutional buildings in Brasilia, trampling democracy underfoot, have done Lula a favour.