Either you play by the rules or you're out of the EU
Even the most carefree citizens of the European Union know by now that it's freezing outside the EU, and that the supposed independence and total prosperity on its fringes are, to say the least, quite unprovable. Brexit is making it clear, especially to the British themselves, that the Eden promised by Boris Johnson and the more Eurosceptic wing of the Conservatives is a long way off. In the process of leaving the UK and establishing a new relationship with it, the strength of each of the EU's 27 members has been precisely in their seamless unity, despite the many strenuous attempts by Britain's seasoned diplomacy to break it. The same can be said of the EU's attitude towards Russia in the current crisis over Ukraine, best exemplified by the single letter signed by High Representative Josep Borrell in response to the 27 letters sent by Russian minister Sergey Lavrov to each of the EU countries, a gesture that has greatly displeased the Kremlin and signalled the failure of its divide-and-rule strategy.
It should be remembered, in case anyone is confused, that this unity is based on the free acceptance of each of the members of the so-called common acquis, a sine qua non condition for acceptance into the club. And this is precisely what the landmark judgment of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), in rejecting the action brought by Hungary and Poland, emphasises: "Respect for those values [of the rule of law] cannot be reduced to an obligation to which a candidate State is subject in order to join the Union and from which it may be exempted after its accession".
It is therefore abundantly clear that fundamental values and rights are the lifeblood of the cohesion, coherence and unity of the European project. As the Danish professor Marlene Wind pointed out at the seminar organised in Madrid by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, "the whole architecture of our great achievements, such as the internal market or the free movement of people and capital, is based on the confidence that everyone accepts the same rules, a basic element for the rest of the world and investors to see our area as a fully secure place to carry out all their activities".
With this judgement, the Court has endorsed the European Commission's decision to make the release of Recovery Funds conditional on respect and observance of the common rules and laws of the Community rule of law. As a result, Hungary and Poland, if they do not rectify their rebellious behaviour - lately referred to as illiberal - could lose 7.2 and 36 billion euros, respectively. In other words, they will have to give up the argumentation of cultural and traditional reasons for attacking freedom of the press, the independence of judges or minority rights.
Viktor Orban, the head of the Hungarian government, has already responded by threatening to launch a campaign to leave the EU. An ordago pronounced for the moment with a small mouth, perhaps because his own polls are showing that the majority of Hungarians would turn their backs on him if he were to persist with such an intention. Orban, accustomed to sweeping all elections, is not so sure of renewing his hegemony in the elections to be held in two months' time, when he will be facing an opposition that is standing shoulder to shoulder with him for the first time.
As for Poland, Prime Minister Morawiecki has for weeks now begun to soften the tone of his protests, although he continues to assert his country's right, like everyone else's, to exercise its own sovereignty, but not at all on issues crucial to the survival of the EU itself.
On the practical side, the next move now falls to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is already being urged by the European Parliament to implement the ECJ ruling as soon as possible, i.e. to activate the so-called nuclear button of not channelling the aforementioned recovery funds. The EU's chief executive had in fact withheld the money due to Hungary and Poland on the pretext of waiting for the court to rule. This has now been done, so Von der Leyen should proceed to activate the definitive freezing of these funds. According to the regulation, after freezing the funds, he should send letters of notification to the Hungarian and Polish governments, which should reply, no longer with allegations, but with compliance with the ruling and proof of the implementation of measures to fully restore the rule of law. It will then be up to the European Council itself to approve by qualified majority whether the funds should be unfrozen, once all the points in the dossier have been verified.