Opinion

Hybrid warfare

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For a long time now, from time to time, one or more forms of action or combat with picturesque or, at the very least, singular names have been appearing or being retrieved from the memory chest. What is certain is that some are derived from others or, rather, complement each other. But there is one of them that in one way or another encompasses all of them and takes from each one what it is most interested in to achieve its objectives: hybrid warfare.  

There are many who pretend to present the concept of hybrid warfare as something new or original that has arisen precisely with the war in Ukraine, but this is not true. Among its various definitions, I propose the following one, which is no more than a mixture of several of the most popular ones: the set of "hostile actions of various kinds and characteristics" carried out by a country or coalition against a geopolitical rival "taking advantage of the weaknesses and vulnerabilities detected in it" with the aim of weakening it from within, although also acting from outside; based on apparently bloodless or non-combat actions, which are usually combined with others that are, where the armed forces are used with profusion and ferocity to, as a whole, "achieve and maintain certain strategic objectives" or the capitulation of the attacked state and the inhibition, by coercion, of those who support it.

A concept that borders on or is even confused with what has long been known as "total war", although various actors prefer to reserve this concept exclusively for when all types of units and capabilities of the land, sea and air armed forces come into play in conflicts, along with cybernetic, deterrence, deception and electronic warfare actions.   

As such, hybrid warfare takes advantage of all kinds of weaknesses and dependencies, as well as propaganda, international pressures, with special emphasis on commercial and economic pressures, and invented or distorted information to attack on each and every flank that can be used to undermine the enemy's capabilities. 

These flanks are obviously to be found in the fields of diplomacy, the economy, foreign policy, energy dependence, climate change, any need for the enemy's subsistence, the affected civilian population and the feeding of the battle; even going so far as to seek to defame, discredit and isolate the enemy internationally, by strangling any source of friendship, trade, subsistence or support that might come to him and feed him.

In order to achieve these objectives, it is advisable to carry out a true area study in order to clearly identify dependencies and vulnerabilities, the sources that sustain them, their own or external resources and, fundamentally, the current and potential alliances that may arise in support of the intended target. 

Once all the real and potential fronts of isolation or attack have been identified, it is necessary to clearly define who and how many are the budding allies to whom part of the direct and indirect actions should be directed to prevent them from wanting and being able to provide any kind of external assistance.

Although we have admitted as a premise that the war in Ukraine is not the only case or scenario in which this type of action has taken place, it is also true that it has been, is and will continue to be a clear example of this war. The current conflict in Ukraine serves as a basis for understanding the concept and the ways of acting on the prey and its related environment in a hybrid way, marking the different phases and the expansion of objectives, until they are all tied up in knots. 

We have seen that initially it maintained a hesitant or deceptive national scope, without even an implicit declaration of war, but, little by little, it has acquired an international ambience and radius of action involving, in one way or another, many actors on both sides. Due to a manifest lack of foresight, lack of experience and serious military miscalculation, few if anyone foresaw the possibility, intensity and scope of such a strategy, especially when all those who directly or indirectly decided to engage in the issue energetically and without great hesitation. Now it is too late to do so, or its implementation will have strange and serious consequences, which will be very difficult to cure and forget despite the speed with which we live and move from one issue to another. 

After half a year of war, the effects of Russia's "bloodless actions" against anyone who jeopardises its integrity, credibility, hinders its actions against Ukraine or doubts its reasons for carrying out this "special operation" - as they call it - are now clear and very evident, especially in the field of economics and international relations.

Europe, because of its bad head and lack of foresight, is plunged into an unprecedented deep and long-lasting internal and external energy and thus economic crisis. It is safe to say that it has reached this point because of the war itself, but also, and this should not be forgotten, because of the diplomatic and governmental naivety of the EU as a whole and of important countries such as Germany in particular, by putting all energy efforts in one basket for years and believing that trade relations with Russia would not change when it was in their interest and, above all, being led and controlled by a satrap of Putin's stature, who has hated Europe and Germany in particular since his days as a KGB agent in East Germany. 

We have not been able to assess the consequences and ramifications of our involvement in this armed conflict. The political gaiety that we adopted with panache and "a lot of courage" at the beginning of the conflict, as if we were on a pilgrimage against a "weak enemy" without thinking that this weak enemy was Russia, has in a few months turned into something unstoppable and with even worse prospects for the onset and intensification of the dreaded winter cold.  

A very long and cold season for central and northern Europe, spanning a period longer than the season itself. The energy forecasts are not at all flattering, the measures adopted so far already point to real patches whose results or disastrous consequences are already looming, not only to overcome the energy crisis, but also the economic crisis derived from the previous one; although the latter has been looming for some time now, despite the efforts of our leaders to conceal and deny it.   

The lack of European coordination in this area and the famous every man for himself when the ship is sinking are becoming so pathetic that the European Commission is already announcing some really crude measures, to be applied immediately and without consideration.

But I fear that the repercussions of these actions go beyond European borders and actors; the shortage of certain materials and raw materials also affects the world economy, in the Americas and in countries with very important economies and industries in Asia such as China, Japan, South Korea and India, which together with the current droughts and famines in Africa and the enormous growth in the price of energy will undoubtedly add, as other ingredients, to this tremendous and unexpected salad of effects that are as harmful as they are almost unpredictable in their totality.

Another phenomenon observed in this hybrid warfare conflict is that the same or similar tactics, methods or procedures are not only used profusely by the attacker. The attacked has also found in them an avenue of escape or reaction by financing and fuelling the conflict to its advantage by employing similar capabilities to undermine the aspirations of the opponent. Propaganda, plaintive and eloquent speeches in front of cameras of MPs from all over the world taking advantage of new technologies and tireless bilateral contacts are, for the time being, bringing more profitable results for Ukraine than for Russia.

Otherwise, it would have been impossible to hold out for six months and continue to keep in check a Russian army which, despite all its defects and major problems of leadership, planning, execution and lack of combat morale, is still far superior to the Ukrainian army, equipped with a variety of weapons and complex training, but brimming with combat morale and constantly supplied with aid which, in some cases, is frankly important and vital, although in others, as in Spain, it is merely testimonial, in tow and to cover its tracks.    

We believed that, since Russia's blitzkrieg plans did not work initially, Putin would inevitably lose the war. I'm not entirely convinced because we didn't think it was going to turn into a conflict of this kind.