Opinion

The invasion in the face of the geopolitics of chaos

photo_camera NATO Spain

Without counterweights, the geopolitical and geo-economic imbalance will provoke a chaotic world with greater strife, countries armed to the teeth and the impossibility of international organisations to stop any conflict per se until a new order of things is reinstated. A new world order that will be born out of Russia's invasion of Ukraine because the scale of the atrocity ordered from the Kremlin keeps latent the European obsession that the Baltic countries or Poland itself will follow in that imperialist path. 

Last week, Spain celebrated its fortieth anniversary of membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), founded on 4 April 1949. The Iberian country joined on 30 May 1982. 

There are currently thirty countries in the Alliance and if they unanimously accept Finland and Sweden, membership will grow, although no one rules out medium-sized and smaller countries knocking on NATO's door to join and benefit from its protective military umbrella.

The celebration in Madrid, at the Teatro Real, was attended by most of the government of socialist Pedro Sánchez, except for his ultra-left-wing partners in Unidas Podemos, determined to repeat like a mantra "peace for Ukraine" and no more armaments.

The stage was set to talk about NATO and nothing else. During the previous days, the Spanish media discussed how the then president, Leopoldo Calvo Sotelo, in that delicate stage of the Transition, had the vision - in the midst of the Cold War - to insist on Spain's entry into the Alliance.

Not without many protests and debates, some in favour and others against. A young Felipe González, Secretary General of the PSOE, openly opposed to the idea, went so far as to demand a referendum; he finally held one in March 1986 when he was already President and received an overwhelming 52.54% in favour of membership. 

Sources consulted at the Moncloa explained that in principle it did not entail Spain's incorporation into the integrated military structure and it was forbidden to install, store or introduce nuclear weapons on Spanish territory.

"In 1996, the Congress of Deputies supported the government's negotiation of Spain's entry into the NATO command structure. A few months later, on 8 and 9 July 1997, Spain hosted the first NATO Summit in Madrid and aspired to full participation in NATO's integrated military structure, which was completed in 1999', the sources point out.

Four decades later, in the midst of 2022, another socialist is proud of Spain's role in the Alliance as a reliable and committed partner that contributes to security. 

OTAN España

During his message, Sánchez stressed that Spain is celebrating 40 years of alliance with a group of countries that share the same idea of democracy and societies governed by freedom, justice, equality and political pluralism. 

"NATO membership fulfils a transcendental mission: it allows us to be what we are and guarantees that we will be what Spain wants to be. Because we are not just talking about a military alliance, but about a common front in defence of the principles that give rise to the prosperity and well-being of our peoples," he told the audience.

In 1992, Spain took part in the first NATO mission, but many more have followed: "Around 125,000 Spanish military personnel have been involved in 22 missions in places like Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Libya, the Gulf of Aden, the Horn of Africa, Afghanistan and in the Mediterranean".

Over these years, a total of 119 Spanish military personnel have lost their lives, including two interpreters. In 2022, Spain is participating in six NATO missions in the Baltic Air Policing Corps; in the NATO Standing Naval Groups; in Operation Sea Guardian in the Mediterranean; also in 'Enhance Foward Presence' in Latvia, as well as in Operation Turkey Support and in the NATO Mission in Iraq.

NATO bases in the Iberian Peninsula are located as follows: 1) in Hoyo de Manzanares, Madrid, is the Improvised Explosive Devices Centre of Excellence; 2) in Bétera, Valencia, is the High Readiness Land Headquarters which also serves as NATO's Rapid Deployment Headquarters; 3) in Rota, Cadiz, is NATO's Ballistic Missile Defence System; 4) in Torrejón de Ardoz, Madrid, the Joint Combined Air Operations Centres (CAOC) to deal with strategic issues; and 5) in Morón de la Frontera, Seville, the Marine Corps Crisis Response Force is located, ready for interventions in both the Mediterranean and Africa. 

There are no nuclear weapons at any of the bases on Spanish territory. In Europe, there are in Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Turkey, Germany, the UK and France, all with a security code. 

Also, the United States has 150 B-61 nuclear gravity bombs in several European member states of the Alliance, according to the Center for Arms Control.

The Journal of the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies reports that during the Cuban missile crisis (in October 1962), Washington ordered the deployment of tactical B-61 nuclear bombs in Turkey and other European countries.

With this deterrent, the United States was able to get Russia to negotiate the withdrawal of the R-12 and R-14 medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs); the B-61s were left untouched and remain at Incirlik, Turkey. 

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg thanked Spain for its "personal leadership" within the Alliance because its commitment to transatlantic security is and will remain vital. 

"Spain will continue to play a key role in our Alliance, because in this time of increasing global competition, our unity is our strength," he said. 

This unity among the thirty has made it possible to provide Ukraine with weapons of various calibres to help it, firstly, to resist the military siege, and secondly, to help it repel Russian troops and recover the territory so far under Russian control after more than three months of invasion and war.

Sánchez took the opportunity to reiterate that both NATO and the European Union (EU) are facing the greatest challenge in their history, and he urged them to strengthen the unity of democratic countries against Putin's war. 

In Madrid, there is much excitement because the NATO summit to be held on 29 and 30 June will be attended not only by the thirty NATO members, but also by Sweden and Finland; and for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine began, President Zelenski could attend in person as a guest. 

Sánchez has already anticipated the turning point that this meeting will mark due to its historic nature and the agreements that will be signed, such as the adoption of the Madrid Strategic Concept, a document for the next ten years of the Alliance that will not only be limited to the conventional military sphere: it will address hybrid threats, disasters caused by the climate crisis and health emergencies. 

The Pentagon is also preparing to announce at the summit a new rotational system for its US troops as more military personnel will be deployed to Eastern European members of the Alliance. The flank will be reinforced in the face of fears of an imminent Russian attack. 

"Allies have chosen to be on the right side of history, defending peace and international law without complexes or fear, and promoting everything that Europe stands for: a more just, prosperous and secure world," Sánchez stressed.

OTAN España

Inevitable changes

The anniversary was attended by four former NATO heads from different periods, each sharing his or her vision of the difficult times and giving their views on the invasion of Ukraine. 

One of the most critical was Spain's Javier Solana (1995 to 1999), who insisted that the world has entered a new era that will be marked by de-globalisation and global decoupling. 

Regarding Spain's presence in the Alliance, Solana emphasised that it helped consolidate its position on logistical and operational matters; in addition to showing, over time, that the Iberian country is a loyal partner to the principles of solidarity and cohesion. It shares values, principles and interests. 

"Multilateralism is key to our approach. Wherever there is a NATO flag, there is a Spanish military. From its first mission in 1992 to the most recent one in Lithuania," he said.

In 1997, Spain held a summit with NATO leaders, where three decisions were taken: first, the enlargement of the Alliance; second, the creation of the NATO-Russia Council; and third, the creation of the NATO-Ukraine Council.

"Even then, we had an idea of where things were likely to go. Unfortunately, these councils have declined in interest in recent years and we were not able to finalise those fundamental ideas that led to their creation at the Madrid Summit," Solana recalled.

On the invasion, the prominent politician reiterated that it is necessary to call for a ceasefire and seek a formula to achieve immediate peace, after recalling that the initial intention of the Russian dictator, Vladimir Putin, was to surrender Kiev, depose the government and install a puppet government in favour of the Kremlin.      

"We have to achieve a ceasefire. We all have to make an effort to achieve it, that's what I think. A ceasefire that allows us to find a way out is, for me, an absolute requirement," Solana reiterated. 

Denmark's Anders Fogh Rasmussen (2009 to 2014) commented that during his leadership, NATO developed six missions on three continents, under a new strategic concept; the Eastern European flank was strengthened and the goal of 2% of the military budget by 2025 was set as a priority. 

"In these security circumstances, increasing military spending is more necessary than ever; we made NATO faster and more flexible. Russia's unprovoked attack on Ukraine has taught us that we cannot take freedom and democracy for granted, we have to fight for them and the Ukrainians have the will to fight, we must give them the means from heavy weapons and we have to stop financing Putin by a complete stop of oil and gas imports," he reiterated with conviction. 

Belgian Willy Claes (1994-1995) remarked that the current regime in Moscow can be compared to the darkest period of Stalinism because it behaves in a dangerously unpredictable manner.

"I have the feeling that this conflict will provoke a profound and fundamental geostrategic change in the world. We cannot exclude the risk of a new structure with authoritarian states confronting democracies," he warned. 

Claes emphasised the manoeuvres that Beijing is undertaking, with an attempt to broaden the BRICS coalition, trying to form an adversarial structure to the West. 

"My final consideration: we must do everything we can to help our Ukrainian friends and I think the time has come to strengthen the support Ukraine is asking us for. Of course we have our doubts... we cannot deny the military capabilities that Russia has," he acknowledged.

And finally, Claes added, the evolution of modern weaponry and modern technology is being underestimated, indeed, he predicted that humanity will face very serious risks to the preservation of peace. 

Britain's George Robertson (1999-2003) pointed out that, during his tenure at NATO, he held talks with the governments of Finland and Sweden several times to convince them to join the Alliance. 

"I spent four years in dialogue with them and Putin has done it in four days. They will be an enriching member of the alliance of free nations, we will be more than a billion like-minded people in the world; we have never had a greater challenge than we have now... this provocation has changed geopolitics fundamentally and perhaps forever," he said. 

Robertson said he had spoken to Putin many times in his early days, in fact, the Rome Declaration was signed in 2002, which endorsed the vocation of each country to make its own decisions about its own security. 

"Putin has broken this commitment. Our obligation is to make sure that Ukraine has the capabilities to defend itself in the face of what it is suffering. They must be given training and heavy weaponry, they are desperate," he reiterated. 

The fear of all those who led NATO is the same fear that Stoltenberg and the Pentagon itself have: that Russia has its hands full invading Moldova, Georgia and then the three Baltic states.