Israel: tensions on the horizon?
The Arab-Israeli conflict, a constant source of tension in the Middle East, may return to the international frontline this year. Netanyahu's new coalition government, despite its brevity (the coalition was formed in late December 2022), has been in the news for its partners' actions regarding the status of Jerusalem and their attempts to reform the judiciary. Should both events come to fruition, Israel is likely to face domestic tensions and problems normalising relations with Arab countries, which would frown upon the expansion of Israel's presence in Palestine.
Regarding the status of Jerusalem, the visit earlier this month of the new Minister of National Security (Israel's equivalent of Spain's Interior Minister) Itamar Ben Gvir - unannounced - to the Esplanade of the Mosques, a holy site for Jews and Muslims, was controversial. Ben Gvir is one of the most controversial figures in the Netanyahu government, having been imprisoned in the past for inciting racism and supporting Jewish terrorist groups. His current post, which puts the Israeli police under his control, and his visit to a place not only sacred to Muslims and Jews, but also the source of clashes between the two sides - Ariel Sharon's visit in 2000 provoked the second Intifada - was most likely intended to demonstrate to both the Palestinians and the international community that Netanyahu's new government has a strong Jewish character, especially the expansion of the Israeli presence in the occupied territories. Such a message may complicate Netanyahu's ambition to normalise relations with Saudi Arabia. The Saudi kingdom condemned Ben Gvir's action, warning Israel that it will not normalise relations with Israel if the status quo at the Esplanade of the Mosques is altered and Israel does not annex its West Bank settlements. Netanyahu does not have an easy time ingratiating himself with the Saudis as Ben Gvir's party - the third most voted party in Israel - wants to achieve what the Saudis set as red lines for normalising relations with Israel. By depending on Ben Gvir to govern, it is quite likely that any attempt by Netanyahu to ingratiate himself with his partners will twist Israeli efforts to normalise relations with the Arab world.
Netanyahu also faces domestic problems over his attempts to reform the judiciary. Netanyahu, who is under investigation for corruption, aims to weaken the Supreme Court's power to control laws voted on in parliament and give more power to politicians in choosing the members of the commission that elects Supreme Court members. Such reforms have met with opposition from Supreme Court President Esther Hayut, former army chief of staff Aviv Kochavi and raised concerns from Israel's President Isaac Herzog. The rejection by the judiciary, the president and the army - the latter one of Israel's most valued and respected institutions - as well as the people, with demonstrations every Saturday since Netanyahu's government was formed, indicate real fears that his new executive will undermine democracy. Such fears can be replicated on the international stage, especially in the United States, Israel's main partner. The current US administration is not as friendly to Netanyahu as Trump's, expressing misgivings about Ben Gvir's presence in the coalition government, which is likely to continue this year.
In conclusion, the Arab-Israeli conflict may be revived this year by Netanyahu's new coalition government. National Security Minister Ben Gvir's visit to the Esplanade of the Mosques, a holy site for Islam and Judaism but also a source of tension for both sides, may complicate Netanyahu's efforts to normalise relations with Arab countries. Netanyahu's ambition to reform the judiciary, with a focus on weakening its powers, has been rejected by the street and the institutions. Such fears may spill over into the relationship with the Biden administration, which is critical of Ben Gvir's presence in Netanyahu's government.