A missile in Poland overshadows G20 proceedings
It looked like Joe Biden was about to have World War III in Bali, immersed in the G20 meeting with other leaders who, like him, had to interrupt the welcome dinner hosted by Indonesian President Joko Widodo, the event's host. Reports of Russian missiles attacking Poland set off alarm bells and put the world on edge.
Seventeen leaders arrived in Indonesia from the group consisting of: Germany, Canada, the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, South Korea, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and the EU. Absent were the leaders of Russia, Mexico and Brazil, who sent their respective Foreign Ministers.
These delegations were joined by an international contingent of 3,300 businessmen, and some leaders were accompanied by their respective foreign ministers; some even brought their interior ministers and even Defence Ministers. For China, it marked the return of President Xi Jinping to a major global gathering, after more than two years without travel outside his country because of the pandemic.
The 14 November meeting between Xi Jinping and his US counterpart - ahead of the G20 meeting on 15-16 November - was eagerly awaited, especially given the events of recent years that have cooled bilateral relations.
China and the United States have equidistant views on issues such as politics, respect for democracy, different cultures and ideologies, but they have one thing in common: they like to make money, and Putin's war is rightly damaging the economic interests of both countries and in obvious circumstances affecting global GDP.
In the latest Economic Outlook report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last October, the organisation downgraded growth expectations for both the United States and China for 2022 and 2023; according to its forecasts, US GDP will grow by 1.6% this year and 1% the following year; and for China, the projections are for a clear slowdown, its GDP would close this year with a growth of 3.2% and, in 2023, 4.4%.
The meeting at the Mulia Hotel was attended by a conciliatory Biden: "President Xi, I'm very pleased to be able to see you again in person. We spent a lot of time together in the days when we were both vice presidents and it's great to see you".
They had not seen each other's faces since 2017, that last time it happened at the Davos Forum, Biden was vice president in Barack Obama's administration and Jinping had already been leading China's destinies since 2013.
"As leaders of our two nations, we share a responsibility, I believe, to demonstrate that China and the United States can manage our differences, prevent competition from becoming anything close to conflict, and find ways to work together on pressing global issues that require our mutual cooperation," reiterated a smiling Biden, looking his interlocutor in the eye.
Jinping looked comfortable and relaxed as he listened to the message prepared by the US leader; both had just passed their own litmus tests, Biden, against all odds, came out on top with his Democratic Party in the mid-term elections in his country and Jinping was re-elected last October to stay on for another five years as China's top leader.
The US leader spoke of finding ways to cooperate on sensitive issues where both countries need to demonstrate leadership.
"And I think this is critical for the good of both our countries and the international community. This was key to the theme of the COP27 meeting that I participated in on Friday and we will be discussing these challenges together in the next two hours. And I think the world looks to China and the United States to play a key role in addressing global challenges, from climate change to food insecurity," the American politician reiterated.
In his conversation, the Chinese dignitary took advantage of the occasion and the open dialogue to remind the occupant of the White House that relations between China and the United States are not going well and it is a priority to put them back on track.
"Since he took office, we have maintained communication through video conferences, phone calls and letters. But none can really replace face-to-face exchanges, and today, finally, we have this face-to-face meeting," he smiled.
Jinping gave some history: "From the initial contact and the establishment of diplomatic relations until today, China and the United States have gone through more than 50 eventful years. We have gained experience and also learned lessons".
He went on in his speech to raise his biggest concern, related to the tensions between the two nations over the past five years.
"As leaders of the two major countries we must chart the right course for the China-US relationship. We need to find the right direction for the bilateral relationship to move forward... a statesman must think and know where to lead his country and must think and know how to get along with other countries and the rest of the world," he reiterated scathingly.
The world, Jinping continued, expects China and the United States to manage the relationship properly because humanity is going through an unprecedented series of challenges. "It has reached a crossroads.
Interestingly, the Chinese leader addressed the issue of peace, knowing that several Western countries - mainly the American Union - have questioned Beijing's failure to assume international co-responsibility for Russia and its invasion, and chose not to join the sanctions, or to speak out openly about Putin's war.
"Therefore, we must work with all countries to bring more hope for world peace, greater confidence in global stability and a greater impetus to common development. The world expects China and the United States to properly manage the relationship... I am ready to have a frank exchange, as we always did, of in-depth views with you on issues of strategic importance in China and the United States and on major global and regional issues. And return our relations to the path of healthy and stable growth for the benefit of our two countries and the world as a whole," Jinping stressed.
Bali was arrived in the hope of achieving, together with China and the United States, a peace table between Ukraine and Russia. In fact, Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky's streamed speech after the opening of the talks on 15 November was aimed precisely at calling on both countries to act as guarantors of a peace that no one can fracture Ukraine again.
In the days leading up to the G20 summit, Russian troops suddenly left Kherson, a city they had occupied since last March, one of the four illegally annexed by Russia and which the Russian dictator himself ordered to be considered Russian territory in the Constitution. After the withdrawal of the troops, President Zelenski travelled to the area to assess the damage.
This gesture was interpreted by some as a sign that the Kremlin was ready to negotiate, and Zelensky himself declared "on the spot" that "Ukraine was ready for peace", a message he had not repeated in the last five months.
On the first day of G20 sessions, leaders who together account for 90% of global GDP converged in favour of living in a peaceful world and questioned the severe impact that their own countries are suffering from the situation in Ukraine, which has only led to greater vulnerability for those most in need. For the first time, China and India and even Mexico aligned themselves with the interests of the other countries present, much to the chagrin of Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, who has witnessed how Russia has been left alone with its invasion.
Patrick Wintour, correspondent for The Guardian, reported that Jinping said in his speech to the leaders present that he was against the "weaponisation" of food and energy. He also vindicated his total opposition to using nuclear weapons because "a nuclear war should never be fought".
Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, also called for a ceasefire as soon as possible and criticised the failure of the UN as a multilateral institution to prevent the war.
Precisely in the evening, during the leaders' dinner in which Lavrov did not participate because he returned to Moscow (after criticising the politicisation of the meeting) from Warsaw, the Ministry of Defence denounced an unexpected Russian missile attack on its territory in the town of Przewodów, resulting in the death of two people.
An attack on NATO territory, the same territory that Biden and his Defence Minister Lloyd Austin vehemently claim they will defend every inch against Russia.
The news spread like wildfire amidst confusion and misinformation in the European media itself, with the European media contradicting each other, and speculation even mentioned the impact of one missile, then two, or even just fragments of a missile, but all agreed that Russian troops were responsible for the attack.
After Lavrov left the G20 meeting, Ukraine was bombed in a systematic and coordinated way not only in its capital Kiev, but also in 14 other locations in the country, destroying energy and electricity infrastructure and attacking civilian residences. According to Ukrainian Defence, it has been the heaviest bombardment of the war with a battery of 100 missiles.
Meanwhile in Poland, President Andrzej Duda convened his Security Council to assess the situation and make decisions and blamed the Russians for the shelling and civilian deaths.
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg was not heard from for hours, while in Bali, the G7 leaders present - the US, Canada, France, the UK, Italy, Japan and Germany plus the EU (in fact, Spain was also invited) - agreed to an emergency meeting.
From Washington, the first to come out was Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder, who urged caution and prudence with the information: "I have no data to corroborate that there has been a missile bombing on Polish soil".
The media present questioned him about what would happen if there was a Russian attack on NATO member Poland, to which Ryder reiterated that his country would comply with its security and defence commitments under NATO's Article 5.
From Bali, President Biden spoke by telephone with President Duda, who changed his statements and his stance on accusing the Kremlin as the hours passed.
After the call, Stoltenberg appeared on Twitter @jensstoltenberg: "I spoke with President Duda @prezydentpl about the explosion in #Poland. Offered condolences for the loss of life. The #NATO is monitoring the situation and Allies are consulting closely. Important that all facts are established".
Poland has put its troops on alert and will reinforce its borders with more troops and together with NATO will have increased surveillance of its airspace. Duda initially hinted that he would use NATO's Article 4 activation mechanism to conduct a series of consultations with allies; it does not imply an imminent move to Article 5 common defence.
From the Kremlin, the Defence Ministry issued a statement denying any involvement and calling the accusation "an act of deliberate provocation". Russia accuses Ukraine and Poland of wanting to escalate the confrontation by involving NATO, which is already indirectly involved in Ukraine's defence.
Even the following day, Biden held an emergency meeting of the G7 plus the EU and Spain, which together issued a communiqué blaming Russia for the merciless bombings of the last few hours, but the US president insisted on not accusing the Kremlin without precise proof, and in fact went so far as to declare that there is no indication that the missile had been launched from Russia - given the trajectory of impact - nor is it of Russian manufacture.
The Polish government itself called a press conference on 16 November and both President Duda and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki repeated Biden's mantra of "calm and prudence", leaving aside the thesis of a Russian missile launched by the Russians.
"We must be guided by calm and prudence. We must rely solely on the facts, this is a time for unity and the entire political class must maintain its restraint and responsibility to the country", Morawiecki remarked.
The new version that is gaining momentum if it is the official one - endorsed by the Pentagon - is that the remains of a missile launched by the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defence in its action to repel the Russian bomb attack, in its trajectory, fell on the other side of the border with the misfortune of killing two people.
In Brussels, at the extraordinary meeting convened by NATO with the ambassadors of the 30 member states, those present came to the same conclusion. Stoltenberg himself told the media that "NATO is in constant communication with Russia" and that at no time does the Alliance want or intend to wage war with Russia. The missile is Ukrainian, not Russian, the White House has insistently reiterated... the world returns to its tense calm.