Peronist survey

alberto fernandez

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has agreed to refinance $44.5 billion in exchange for a vague promise by the Argentine government to gradually reduce its fiscal deficit - financed by printing money - over the next three years. It is an agreement of intent to save Argentina from default and total economic collapse.

  • Alberto Fernández's government has presented it practically as a blank cheque and a recognition by the IMF of the impossibility of paying the debt. Draft reforms? That will (in principle) be up to the next government. The tragedy of the matter is that the current irrelevance of Argentina's economy is precisely what avoids too many questions and smoothes the deal.
  • The IMF is postponing difficult decisions, Kristalina Georgieva is seeking to relegitimise herself, and the memory of the 2001 failure is kept at arm's length.

The agreement, quickly validated by the opposition, was followed by a political earthquake, overestimated by the Argentine "commentariat". In reality, the eternal Peronist infighting counts for less and less. Cristina's son, Máximo Kirchner, resigned as head of the ruling party's parliamentary group due to disagreements with the agreement. Far from being an open challenge to Fernández, it is nothing more than an attempt by the Kirchner family to disassociate itself from any negative effects of the pact with the Fund.

AFP/ERIC BARADAT  -   La directora gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), Kristalina Georgieva, habla en una conferencia de prensa en la sede del FMI, el 25 de septiembre de 2019 en Washington
  • Does it affect the coalition government? No, Cristina and Alberto still need each other. Does it affect Argentina's stability? It raises doubts about a real commitment to implement reforms. But judging by the timing of the agreement, this is already being discounted by Kristalina's IMF, with its own priorities.

The week leaves another more substantial piece of news. The Chinese will build and commission the country's fourth nuclear power plant, Atucha III, following an investment of $8 billion. Whispers in Washington. For almost two decades China has been looking for a major investment in Argentina that has not materialised since the beginning of the construction of the dams in the Kirchner's fiefdom in Santa Cruz province.

  • Fernández arrived in Beijing for the inauguration of the Winter Olympics. He will be seeking investment and yuan to shore up his dwindling international reserves, and alternative backing from Washington.
  • A group of academics have been talking about "active non-alignment" for Argentina - and Latam - between competing superpowers. The truth is that Fernández is in trouble at home, and necessity knows no laws. He stopped off in Russia, where he said, "We have to see how Argentina can somehow become a gateway for Latin America, so that Russia can enter Latin America in a more decisive way".
  • Puzzling, given the pact with the Fund and the situation in Ukraine. His press chief did not have a quiet afternoon.

 

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