Opinion

Russia and the pro-Russian states not recognised by the UN

photo_camera Vladimir Putin

The outcome of the Ukrainian war could lead to three different scenarios: 

  1. Russian military victory, which would achieve its as yet unclear strategic objectives. This scenario could include the overthrow of Volodymyr Zelensky's Ukrainian regime, either by its surrender, an internal coup or a rebellion by the country's remaining population.
  2. Russia's defeat, through the accumulation of the effects of international sanctions and the attrition of a prolonged occupation of Ukrainian territory, with the consequent withdrawal of the Russian army to its borders. This would be a humiliation for the Kremlin, with very likely dire consequences. 
  3. Direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to reach a mutually acceptable minimum agreement, with a consequent end to the war.

The second scenario is highly unlikely unless NATO becomes directly involved in the conflict, which both the United States and NATO itself have reiterated their refusal to do. 

This leaves the two likely scenarios of a Russian military victory and a half-hearted political victory for the Kremlin with direct negotiations. In either scenario, these could conceivably be the next steps for Russian President Vladimir Putin after the "neutralisation and de-otanisation" of Ukraine and its return to "the Great Mother" of Russian space, whatever form it may take: a confederate state of the three Russian-speaking republics, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine; a Federation of Independent Republics; a Union of Republics in the style of the defunct Soviet Union of which all three were part; or some other new form.  

In any case, it is foreseeable that Moscow's next geopolitical moves will be aimed at institutionally linking the Russophile republics that were proclaimed in some of the countries bordering Russia at the time of the break-up and disappearance of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, but which are not recognised by the United Nations.

These are the Republics of Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Artsakh, mainly located within the internationally recognised territories of Moldova, Georgia and Azerbaijan. 

Transnistria, or the Dniestrian Moldovan Republic, was proclaimed independent at the time of the break-up of the USSR in 1991. It is recognised as such by three other republics, also absent from the United Nations, Abkhazia, South Ossetia/Alania, and Nagorno-Karabakh or the Republic of Artsakh, with which it maintains diplomatic relations. With its capital in the city of Tiraspol, Transnistria has a population of less than one million and is located southeast of Moldova, bordering Ukraine in the Odessa region. 

Abkhazia, or the Republic of Abkhazia, is a territory within the internationally recognised borders of Georgia, proclaimed independent in 1992 after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. With its capital in the Black Sea port city of Sukhumi and a quarter of a million inhabitants in total, Abkhazia is not explicitly recognised by the UN as an independent state, although many states in the world do recognise it, including Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Nauru, Syria, Vanuatu and Tuvalu. Belarus has expressed its intention to recognise the Republic of Abkhazia, but has so far failed to do so.

South Ossetia or the Republic of South Ossetia, with its capital at Tskhinvali, has a population of barely 100,000. Located in the north-east of Georgia, bordering North Ossetia-Alania, it was proclaimed independent when the USSR collapsed, and has been able to cope with the war launched by Georgia after its declaration of independence in 1991, thanks to military aid from Russia and its sister republic of North Ossetia-Alania. 

The Republic of Artsakh, also known as Nagorno-Karabakh, is a territory within the international borders of Azerbaijan, claimed by Armenia, with a population of about 150,000, a capital in Stepanakert and Russian and Armenian as its official languages. The republic is also not officially recognised by the UN, but by the same countries that recognise Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria.  Russia has asserted its presence in the area by mediating a ceasefire in the recent conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and by getting the warring parties to agree to a deployment of some 2,000 Russian military personnel to ensure the functioning of a territorial corridor between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. 

The Kremlin's objective is likely to be to protect and secure the existence of these republics in favour of forming some kind of alliance with Russia, which could take the form of membership of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) created by Moscow in 1992 after the dissolution of the USSR, which includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, with Afghanistan and Serbia as observers, and which Iran has been invited to join. In a first stage, the aforementioned Russophile republics could be invited as observers, which would already give them certain guarantees of survival.

On the other side of the barricade, it is to be expected that a military defeat of Ukraine or a negotiated political cession with Russia would provoke a reaction from neo-Nazi paramilitary groups in Ukraine, which could move to other countries bordering the Black Sea and the Caucasus to wage war against the independent Russophile republics.

This internationalisation of neo-Nazi paramilitary movements would bring together all existing armed anti-Russian right-wing extremist groups throughout the region: 

  • The Bergmann Group in Georgia, heir to the Battalion of Georgian soldiers who fought alongside the Nazis in World War II, and which has been an essential support in Georgia's "anti-Russian and pro-Western revolution" after the fall of the Soviet Union.
  • The Ukrainian Azov Regiment, a neo-Nazi movement integrated into the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Ukrainian government and the spearhead of the Territorial Defence. The Azov movement includes neo-Nazi groups from several European countries, the United States, Belarus and Georgia. 
  • The Mjedrioni Movement, a far-right group led by Zhaba Ioseliani, was one of the pillars of the anti-Russian counter-revolution and the war in Abkhazia.  
  • Pravy Sektor, a Ukrainian neo-Nazi, paramilitary and anti-Russian movement.
  • The National Corps Movement of Ukraine, founded by Andrei Bilietsky, one of the commanders of the Azov Battalion. He is a lieutenant colonel in the Milizia of the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs. 

The proliferation of neo-Nazi groups in the countries that were part of the Soviet Union has been permitted if not encouraged by the pro-Western authorities who installed themselves in these countries after the 'colour revolutions'. Strong in Ukraine, where they have enjoyed the official support of the Kiev government since 2014, these heavily armed groups dream of constituting an international army of mercenaries to fight Russia and partner republics.