The Friedrich Naumann Foundation analyses the retreat of liberal democracy to the detriment of authoritarian regimes led by Xi Jinping's China and Vladimir Putin's Russia

"Democracy has been challenged, the model and its legitimacy are at stake"

photo_camera PHOTO/ATALAYAR/GUILLERMO LÓPEZ - The Friedrich Naumann Foundation

Russia's invasion of Ukraine ordered by Russian president Vladimir Putin on 24 February seems to have accelerated the process of multilateralism's decomposition. In its place, a new international order is emerging, marked by the gradual retreat of liberal democracy to the detriment of authoritarianism, two models that are visibly at odds with each other on a global scale. The example to follow in this scenario is that embodied by China and Russia, two similar but at the same time different regimes that, until the war in Ukraine, have competed for hegemony, more successfully in the case of China.

In order to delve deeper into the alternative model to liberal democracy that the Beijing-Moscow axis currently represents, the Friedrich Naumann Foundation organised a conference on Wednesday at IE University in Madrid's Fifth Tower to discuss the long-term role of the European Union and how the West could contain a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which would follow the same 'modus operandi' deployed by Putin in the Old Continent.

Fundación Friedrich Naumann

The liberal German organisation brought together three renowned experts in their respective fields of study and a Baltic diplomatic representative at a time when the region is closely observing developments in Ukraine, whose government, like the rest of the EU-27, has given its unwavering support as a bloc, since it is also in the crosshairs of a belligerent Kremlin.

IE University President Manuel Muñiz shared a panel discussion with economist Alicia García-Herrero, an expert on Asia, and the Estonian Ambassador to Spain, Mariin Ratnik. The colloquium was moderated by Alexander Görlach, professor at the Oxford University Internet Institute and author of "Homo Empathicus. On Scapegoats, Populists and How to Save Democracy".

Fundación Friedrich Naumann

The head of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation's office in Spain, David Hennenberger, introduced the panel and made some opening remarks. The organisation has been forced to move its office from Hong Kong to Taipei, Hennenberger explained, a problem related to the democratic regression that this enclave is undergoing precisely as a consequence of political pressure from Beijing. Naumann also had offices in Ukraine, which have been affected as a result of the invasion. "This is something that will inevitably affect our lives," he said.

As for the Beijing-Moscow axis, Hennenberger pointed out that the two models are hardly comparable, but added that both share common trends that should not be overlooked. Görlach recalled Putin's presence in China on the occasion of the opening of the Winter Olympics, where a strategic partnership was signed with his counterpart Xi Jinping, who, in all likelihood, then received confirmation of plans to invade Ukraine.

Fundación Friedrich Naumann

"The invasion had ambitious goals," Muñiz acknowledges, "the proof of which is the intentions to decapitate the Ukrainian government". "We haven't seen aggression of this scale since the end of the Second World War. We are not aware of it, but Zelenski could have fled, which would have led to a scenario radically opposite to the current one," recalls the director of IE University before sharing a revealing anecdote with the audience: "When I was at the Munich Security Conference, I heard the exchange of intelligence information, and I have to say that I had never seen intelligence information so precise and shared at that level".

"China and Russia have been walking together for a few years now," García-Herrero noted. "Especially since the Russian invasion of Crimea, Moscow has been moving closer towards Beijing. In fact, only Pakistan has moved closer to China's orbit than Russia in recent years," revealed the economist, who attributes the rapprochement between the two to the idea of a common response against the West. Since 2014, Russia has been an instrument for China to move closer to its interests.

Fundación Friedrich Naumann

"Both have a common goal: to change the global order," García-Herrero said. This has been demonstrated in recent years with the creation of parallel organisations and institutions, as well as other diplomatic and commercial actions in various regions, all aimed at weaving an alternative model to that offered by the United States and the rest of the West. China has been far more effective in this regard, and the odds are that it will be the global leader by 2030.

"Washington's warnings took the war narrative away from Moscow from the very first moment," Muñiz said of the war in Ukraine. The fact is that the situation "has put China in a favourable position", the Estonian ambassador responded. "With the West spending resources and avoiding positioning itself in the Indo-Pacific, Beijing wins, but Europe's show of strength with unity and rapid decision-making, with arms shipments and sanctions, has surprised Xi Jinping's regime".

Fundación Friedrich Naumann

Ratnik asserted that the Beijing-Moscow axis is a marriage of necessity and not of love, and that the West should not turn to Russia again, although at times in the past relations may have been fruitful, because Putin's regime has emerged as an unreliable and aggressive partner. In this sense, García-Herrero stressed that Russia could end up becoming a burden for China's ambitions: "We are talking about a country whose economic model has failed and which is difficult for Beijing to maintain".

The question is: what will happen if China decides to close ranks with Russia? Muñiz was clear: "We would be in a diametrically opposed scenario. A re-edition of the Cold War in other terms. A battle between autocracy and democracy". "I think the Chinese are uncomfortable in this position," said the Director of IE University, "and, above all, with the economic and commercial consequences of the war. We are seeing a reversal of globalisation. We will live in a less globalised world".

García-Herrero gave some clues: "China is afraid of a possible trade blockade of its technology industry, especially in relation to its semiconductor industry". In a scenario where Beijing backs the Kremlin's aggression, the West could impose a sanctions regime against its economy, and the ambitious Silk Road project could end up suffering the consequences. This is perhaps one of the last dams preventing Xi Jinping from abandoning his partial ambiguity, although "a head-on economic clash with China would be a 'shock' for the West", Muñiz pointed out.

Fundación Friedrich Naumann

What is at stake, the IE University director explained, is a global system based on the rule of law, respect for sovereignty and the prevalence of international legality. "In Russia, a small group controls the country's wealth. In China the Communist Party (CCP) is consolidated and controls a much more sophisticated system. The apparatus is huge, and it is not as exposed as in Russia". The challenges are different.

"Democracy has been challenged, the model and its legitimacy is at stake. We live in perhaps the most hostile environment against democracy, because this hostility arises even within democracies themselves," Muñiz said. "What would our conversation have been if Marine Le Pen had won the French presidential election? We are going to be talking about this issue in international politics for the next 20 or 30 years".

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