Insurgents force end to three-month-old truce after US President Joe Biden's regional tour

Houthis refuse to extend ceasefire in Yemen

photo_camera PHOTO/HANI MOHAMMED -  Houthi rebels raise their weapons during a rally in Sana'a, Yemen

Yemen is going through its longest period of peace in six years. The ceasefire agreed in April between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition forces backing the internationally recognised Yemeni government led to a halt in air strikes and a significant drop in the number of casualties, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) programme. Renewed in June, the UN-sponsored truce raised hopes for a peace process, but expectations are fading. 

The Houthi Supreme Political Council announced on Sunday that it would not renew the three-month-old ceasefire in Yemen, bringing to an end the second truce in seven years, the longest-standing to date after the first temporary cessation of hostilities agreed in Kuwait in 2016, which was also boycotted by the Houthis. In all this time, the parties have proved unable to move towards a peace process. The ceasefire was the first important step in this direction to rescue the country from the world's biggest humanitarian crisis. 

The terms of the agreement included the resumption of commercial flights at the airport in the capital, Sana'a, as well as the reopening of the port of Al Hudayda on the Red Sea, areas controlled by Yemeni insurgents. These conditions have been met, allowing the arrival of fuel and humanitarian aid. However, the Supreme Political Council claims that coalition forces continue to violate the agreement and maintain the economic blockade. "The side of aggression failed to implement its terms and represented a shocking and disappointing experience that cannot be repeated in the future," the group concluded.

Taiz

US President Joe Biden's regional tour of the Middle East has set the stage. The joint statement issued by Washington and Riyadh at the end of the controversial meeting between the Democrat and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of the Wahhabi kingdom known as MBS, angered the leadership of Ansar Allah, the Supporters of God, who interpreted Biden's trip as an attempt to rally their regional allies to harass their regional rivals, "especially Yemen". 

"Yemen adheres to its full right to continue the struggle," added the rebel group led by Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the younger half-brother of the late Houthi founder. Yemeni insurgents threatened to strike again in Marib province, the government's last bastion in the north, to seize the oil, gas and electricity facilities that would have helped their 'de facto' state have some economic viability. Located in the centre of the country, the Marib region almost fell to the Houthis in late 2021 in an intense battle, but Emirati military backing tipped the balance in favour of the coalition forces. 

In exchange for the reopening of Sana'a airport and the port of Al Hudayda, the Houthis pledged, among other things, to restore road access to the internationally recognised government-controlled city of Taiz, the third most populous city in the country. Taiz has been under siege by the Houthis since 2015, who have made life hell for the more than half a million inhabitants. However, the rebels have failed to deliver, as Biden and MBS pointed out. Instead, the Houthis proposed opening a secondary access road.

Hans Grundberg

The UN special envoy for Yemen and architect of the ceasefire, Hans Grundberg, said that "opening the roads is not only about alleviating humanitarian suffering and removing restrictions, but it is also about starting to normalise the conditions of daily life for Yemenis, including education, work, health services and the economy in general". "Let us be clear, the alternative to the truce is a return to hostilities and probably a phase of escalation of the conflict with all its foreseeable consequences for Yemeni civilians and regional security," the Swedish diplomat said. 

Grundberg and international observers hailed the agreement as a success. Air offensives have ceased completely and the lethality of the conflict has been reduced, but attacks and deaths have continued despite the truce, according to data collected by ACLED. In this period, the Houthis' military capabilities may have expanded thanks to Iranian-supplied arms smuggling, which would favour their position in the resumption of hostilities now that they control much of the country and the Red Sea coast, from where they have options to block the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a key international trade route.

Biden Oriente Medio

Ansar Allah is in a position of strength. The Houthi insurgents have established their government in the country's most important city, Sana'a. From the capital, it is vying for power with the internationally legitimised Aden-based executive of Rashad al-Alimi, the successor to Abd Rabbuh Mansur al-Hadi, who has been legitimised by the international community. The Houthis have built a police state that persecutes opponents and imposes a harsh interpretation of Shari'a law, and have forged relations with Tehran and related militias such as Hamas and Hezbollah to fight what they call the 'Zionist entity' of Israel and US imperialism. 

Ending the Yemeni conflict is one of the foreign policy priorities for the Biden administration, which since its inception has been a string of failures. The work of US diplomat Tim Lenderking, special envoy for Yemen, was instrumental in sealing the truce in April. Moreover, the removal of the "terrorist organisation" label imposed on the Houthis by Trump served to loosen relations, although the rebels soon betrayed the rapprochement and stepped up their offensive on Marib.  

Biden's drastic change of position in the Middle East with respect to Saudi Arabia, which he called an "international pariah" for the Crown Prince's involvement in the dismemberment in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul of the regime-critical journalist and columnist for The Washington Post, Jamal Khassoghi, has been seen by the Houthi leadership as a new concession by Washington to Riyadh, which is ultimately responsible for the bombings that have left Yemen a wasteland.

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