New elections in Iraq: from chaos to bloody civil protests
Iraq is not getting back on its feet. Since the US invasion in 2003 because of Saddam Hussein's alleged weapons of mass destruction, Iraq has been stumbling and stumbling, having to confront the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (also known as ISIS or Daesh) in 2014 after its proclamation of the caliphate in the Iraqi city of Mosul, or to deal with massive demonstrations against the political system, which neither favours nor helps the citizens.
Iraq has been in a tense political-social situation for more than a year, with mass demonstrations in which it is estimated that around 600 people have been killed and more than 17,000 injured by the Iraqi army. On 1 October 2019, protests began over high levels of corruption, high unemployment, ineffective basic public services and foreign meddling in Iraq's internal affairs, especially led by Iran.
Although protests ceased on 9 October of the same year when Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi promised to reshuffle his government and reduce the unemployment rate, Iraqis took to the streets again on 25 October because Mahdi would not agree to call early elections. He subsequently resigned from office on 29 November 2019. In May 2020, a new prime minister, Mustafa al-Kazemi, was appointed after tense and difficult months of negotiations.
Undoubtedly, the epidemiological situation caused by COVID-19 has only worsened this situation throughout 2020. So much so that it is considered the Arab country with the worst COVID-19 data, forcing the Iraqi government to close its land borders and limit flights1. This has led to the government being forced to reduce its public investment, leading to more poverty, more unemployment, the devaluation of the dinar by the Central Bank, and ultimately more civil unrest.
Iraq's political system, the muhassasa, is one of the cornerstones on which the protests have been based. Under the muhassasa, established by the 2005 Constitution, political power is distributed by quotas. As Elena Labrado (2020) has pointed out, the protesters do not see themselves represented by these small political elites of local parties, who cling to power thanks to this quota system, which only encourages corruption2.
The assassination of Iranian General Soleimani on Iraqi soil in early 2020 tightened the strings between the US and Iran, with the potential escalation of violence that this could represent. However, as many experts have pointed out, Iran is more interested in expanding its power and becoming the leading Muslim power in the Middle East than in its conflict with the Americans, so its nuclear negotiations with the UN and the European Union have not been interrupted, despite the US withdrawal from the negotiations3. On the eve of the anniversary of Soleimani's assassination, Baghdad's Green Zone –where Iraq's political bodies, including most ministries, and numerous embassies, including the US embassy, are located– has suffered numerous missile attacks on these diplomatic delegations, leading Defence Minister Juma Inad to warn that this escalation of violence could lead to civil war.
As noted above, Iran plays an important role in Iraqi politics, especially since the war against Da'esh, after which many of the Iranian militias have gained strength and power in the Baghdad government. Moreover, it is assumed that Iran's interest in projecting its influence in other Middle Eastern territories is due to the religious aspect, on the one hand, since the Shia branch of Islam (very predominant in Iran and Iraq) is a minority within this religion, and because of its economic expectations, on the other, with the Iranian government's aspiration to control an outlet to the Mediterranean Sea with a corridor between Beirut (Lebanon) and Tehran (Iran)3. This second aspect is due to its historical enmity with the powerful Sunni Gulf country, Saudi Arabia, which is also vying for hegemonic power in the Middle East. However, the two countries play very different roles: while Saudi Arabia is a classic US ally, Iran is considered a sponsor of terrorism by the US State Department, along with Syria, North Korea and recently added Cuba. Iran has also proclaimed itself a leader of Arab resistance to Western interference in the Arab-Israeli conflict following the signed and ratified Abraham Accords between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (and later with Bahrain and Sudan). It remains to be seen what foreign policy Biden decides to adopt and how much pressure will be put on Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel as a state, which could force other Middle Eastern countries to do likewise and could further corner Iran on the geopolitical stage.
Elections scheduled for June this year have finally been postponed to 10 October. The decision to bring forward the elections to 2022 has been made in an attempt to satisfy the public, as the Iraqi population has repeatedly called for fair elections free of manipulation. The reason for the postponement is that the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) has asked for more time to organise the polls to ensure a day free of suspicions of fraud.
It is expected that citizens will turn out to vote more strongly than in the previous elections held in 2018, when turnout was only 44.5 per cent4. It is also expected that the postponement may benefit incumbent Prime Minister Al-Kazemi to consolidate alliances that will favour him in a future government. The parties registered to run in the elections now number several hundred, including a political bloc that aims to favour the population and fight for the protests carried out in the October 2019 demonstrations.
These elections are the last trump card to rid Iraq of corruption and unemployment and ensure the social justice that its people so desperately demand. It remains to be seen whether there is the political will to carry it out.
Daniel González Jiménez, psychologist and Intelligence Analys
- Espinosa, A. (6 October 2020). Iraq closes its borders to limit the spread of the virus. El País. Retrieved from https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-10-06/irak-cierra-sus-fronteras-para-limitar-la-expansion-del-virus.html
- Labrado, E. (2020). Iraq and Lebanon on a knife's edge, the resurgence of protests. Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE). Retrieved from http://www.ieee.es/publicaciones-new/documentos-de-opinion/2020/DIEEEO57_2020ELELAB_IrakLibano.html
- García-Fraile, M. A. (2020). Iran's geostrategic dynamics in the Middle East. Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE). Retrieved from http://www.ieee.es/contenido/noticias/2020/06/DIEEEO86_2020MIGFRA_Iran.html
- VOA News. (19 January 2021). State Media: Iraq to Postpone General Elections by Four Months. VOA News. Retrieved from https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/state-media-iraq-postpone-general-elections-four-months
