Ukraine and Syria, so far and yet so close
Analysts highlight similarities in military tactics used by Russia in Syria and Ukraine
The war in Ukraine is having a global impact. Since the Russian invasion, energy prices have risen while fears of a global food crisis in cereals, seeds, flour and sunflower oil have increased. Ukraine, considered the breadbasket of Europe, is also a major contributor to the economies of certain African and Middle Eastern countries, to which Kiev exports 40% of the wheat and maize it produces. However, there are nations that exceed this percentage of grain imports, such as Egypt and Turkey, which exceed 70%, according to figures from The New York Times.
However, events in Ukraine are affecting the Middle East and North African chessboard beyond the economic level. In this regard, Syria is one of the countries in the region that is most closely following the development of the war for the possible effects it could have on its territory and on its own conflict, which began in 2011.
President Vladimir Putin is not only the main ally of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, but Moscow also represents the greatest military and economic support for the regime in Damascus, which is subject to international economic sanctions. For this reason, Syria is closely watching the development of the war in Ukraine and Russia's military actions.
The Russian army intervened in the Syrian civil war in September 2015 on the side of al-Assad, an event that marked a turning point in the conflict. Moscow's involvement in the conflict also provided a lifeline for Syrian forces, which at the time were suffering from serious attrition after four years of fighting with rebel factions. At the time, the shadow of Daesh was also spreading across the country. Just a few months before the arrival of Russian troops in Syria, the terrorist group controlled 50 per cent of the country's territory.
In addition to supporting Syrian forces during the war and presenting itself as a strong and reliable ally, the Kremlin also sought to protect the port of Tartus, the only Russian naval base outside the former Soviet Union with access to the Mediterranean Sea.
Seven years later, Moscow and Damascus still maintain strong military cooperation. Indeed, in February, amid tensions between Moscow and NATO and shortly before the invasion of Ukraine, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Syria and President al-Assad to oversee naval exercises in the Mediterranean.
During the exercises, according to the Russian news agency Interfax, Russia sent MiG-31K fighter jets with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, recently used in Ukraine, and long-range Tupolev Tu-22M strategic bombers to its Hmeimim air base.
The good feeling between the two countries was demonstrated once again when Putin recognised the independence of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Shortly afterwards, Syria became the second country to support the independence of the two Ukrainian regions.
In a statement, Damascus expressed its desire to strengthen its relations with Donetsk and Lugansk. It also blamed "Western countries", led by the US, for the Ukrainian crisis. Subsequently, Syria also backed the 'special operation' announced by Putin in the early hours of24 February.
#Ukraine | ????? Continúa la presencia de convoyes rusos en Jerson pic.twitter.com/OR08ZQIFFv
— Atalayar (@Atalayar_) March 16, 2022
Damascus backs Russia because of its strong dependence on the Kremlin, but also because it is aware that the war in Ukraine could alter the course of the Syrian conflict. As The Soufan Center explains, if Russia's invasion of Ukraine turns into a long-term counter-insurgency campaign, Putin may be forced to redeploy Russian military assets from Syria to Ukraine.
The New York-based think-tank recalls that the Syrian army "is not sufficient to prevent the opposition from advancing into regime-controlled territory if Russian air power is withdrawn from the battlefield". Should this happen, Iran could be the main beneficiary, as it would increase its influence over Damascus.
The threat from Daesh is also worth noting. The cells of the jihadist group, despite their defeat in 2019, have not disappeared, as they have demonstrated with their latest movements, such as the attack on the Gweran prison in January.
For this reason, jihadists in Syria are also keeping an eye on developments in the war in Ukraine. As Hisham al-Najjar notes in Al-Arab, 'the jihadists who control northwestern Syria and Idlib province are hoping that the war in Ukraine will be a big and heavy loss for Russia, which is the most powerful and influential player in Syria'.
According to the newspaper, members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group close to al-Qaeda that controls Idlib province, expressed via Telegram their wish for the collapse of the Russian government and the emergence of a different one with a new approach to Syria. In this regard, HTS also described Chechens fighting with Russia in Ukraine as 'apostates'. President Ramzan Kadyrov has deployed more than 10,000 fighters in Ukraine.
ansport Kadyrov's thugs to Ukraine
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) February 25, 2022
However, real Chechens are expressing their support for #Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/umdYQqVh4X
CFighting with the Russian army, which they call the 'enemy' and accuse of being openly anti-Islam, the jihadist group claims that the Chechens have turned away from religion, 'even if they claim to be Muslims who fast and perform the five prayers'. "Fighting with Russian troops is blasphemy and apostasy, let alone participating in a destructive war against Ukraine," the HTS says, according to the Al-Monitor website.
Aside from the government and jihadist militias, Syrian society has also spoken out about the conflict in Ukraine. On the one hand, opponents of the Syrian regime have taken a stand against the Russian invasion, as demonstrated, for example, on 15 March, 11 years after the start of the civil war.
#Syria- 11 years since Syrians peacefully demanded freedom, political reform & respect for their rights.
— Mete Sohtaoğlu (@metesohtaoglu) March 15, 2022
This conflict, revolution is not frozen & conditions are getting worse.
Massive demonstrations in #Syria's opposition held areas on the 11th anniversary.
? @anasanas84 pic.twitter.com/P5sQEbwhjW
At the marches in Idlib commemorating the eleventh anniversary of the anti-government uprising, events in Ukraine took centre stage. "What is happening in Ukraine today is similar to the situation here; the enemy is the same and the target is the same," one of the more than 5,000 protesters who gathered in the main square of the last rebel stronghold told AFP.
In addition to Sira opposition flags, Idlib citizens carried banners in support of Ukraine and against Putin. "Fortify your hospitals with cement blocks; the Putin enemy does not distinguish between civilians, wounded and fighters," advised a Syrian doctor who also suffered Russian shelling.
The strong Ukrainian resistance also draws admiration from Syrian fighters fighting against Russia. "The Ukrainians are fighting like beasts and we hope they will win. We are fighting the same enemy, and if the Russians lose there, it's good for us here," a former nurse told The Independent. The British newspaper's journalist Borzou Daragahi notes that, as in Syria and Ukraine, Russia publicly discredits its opponents as extremists: "jihadist terrorists in the case of Syria, and Nazis in the case of Ukraine".
Syrians, watching images of the war in Ukraine, relive the horror of Russian attacks. "If you want to live, flee," advises a Syrian who was forced to flee his home by Putin's air strikes. "It's terrible to see how ruthless Russia is also in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin does what he wants, no one has ever put limits on him. We Syrians know what we are talking about," another Syrian woman who runs a women's centre in Idlib told DW.
Indeed, many analysts and media highlight the similarities between the tactics used by Russia in Syria and Ukraine. "Syria was Russia's war school for invading Ukraine," Jennifer Cafarella, chief of staff at the Institute for the Study of War and a fellow at the US National Security Institute, told the BBC.
Syrian artists in Idlib region (Syria) made a mural in support of Ukraine on a wall destroyed by Russian bombs or SAA artillery shelling. pic.twitter.com/84j5cpjUHQ
— MrRevinsky (@Kyruer) February 24, 2022
Cafarella highlights the use of air strikes against civilian areas "in an attempt to terrorise the population into either submission or flight" in both countries. She also comments on Russia's humanitarian concessions, such as humanitarian corridors, although these agreements are then violated and used to buy time and "prepare for a new military push".
However, there is also a part of the population that supports the Russian military operation. Syrian fighters have expressed their willingness to move to Ukraine to fight with Russian troops. According to the daily Al Quds Al Arabi, Syria and Russia have opened recruitment centres in the city of As-Suwayda with the aim of sending soldiers to Ukraine.
Syria - Russia
— On the Ground News (@OGNreports) March 11, 2022
A TV channel run by the Russian Defense Ministry shared footage of Syrian mercenaries ready to fight in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/nM2vLqoKSY
At the same time, Russian forces in the country have begun to organise lists of names in the towns of Yalda, Babila and Beit Sahem, south of Damascus, for those who wish to fight with the Russian army. According to figures from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), more than 40,000 Syrian fighters have registered to take part in the war in Ukraine.
On the other hand, hundreds of citizens have taken to the streets to show their support for Russia, as has happened in cities such as Tartus, Lakatia or Hasaka, where university students and professors demonstrated their support for Moscow. Rallies praising the Russian invasion have also been organised in Damascus, Deir ez-Zor, Aleppo and Homs.
Pro-Russia Demonstrations at Syrian Universities: We Stand in Solidarity with Russia Against Terrorism and NATO #Russia #Syria #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/CNpY067aiB
— MEMRI (@MEMRIReports) March 22, 2022
In addition to defending Russia's military actions in Ukraine, citizens at the rallies rejected "US and Western policies aimed at undermining their security and stability", Syrian state news agency SANA reported. "Participants raised banners confirming the Syrian people's support for Russia to restore balance in the world after Western and monopolar arrogance," it added.
Another aspect that has been highlighted on multiple occasions in the wake of the war in Ukraine is the double standards of the West on several issues, such as attention to the conflict or the management of refugees. In this regard, Marwan Muasher, vice-president of the Carnegie Endowment wonders whether in the event that the Russians launch a chemical attack against Ukraine, the international community will remain silent as it did in Syria.
"I doubt it," he told EFE, alluding to the West's double standards. The parallels between Moscow's actions in Syria and Ukraine have set off alarm bells about the use of chemical weapons by Russia against the Ukrainian population, just as it did in Syria.
Muasher also denounced during a virtual event on Syrian children that the war in Ukraine has further "deflated" the "attention" given to the Syrian crisis, according to the Spanish news agency. He also recalled that half of the Syrian population is still refugees or internally displaced persons.
The war in Ukraine, as previously indicated, threatens a food crisis. In Syria, in particular, this challenge affects Syrian children "very strongly", as food inflation has an impact on their levels of malnutrition and poverty, explains the deputy director of the United Nations Children's Fund (Unicef) in the Middle East, Bertrand Bainvel, according to EFE.
For this reason, Bainvel warns that rising prices increase the likelihood that parents will opt for "negative coping mechanisms" such as child labour or child marriage.
Syria has just entered its eleventh year of war. According to SOHR figures, at least half a million people have been killed, among them 160,000 civilians, including more than 25,000 children. Children are also facing severe psychological trauma. According to UNICEF, during 2021, one third of children in Syria showed signs of psychological distress, such as anxiety, sadness, fatigue or frequent trouble sleeping..
Half of # Syria's children have grown up knowing nothing but conflict and displacement. The situation has devastated the lives of young people like Samir.
— Save the Children US (@SavetheChildren) March 29, 2022
Follow as Samir walks through what it's like living in a displacement camp in #Idlib. pic.twitter.com/pnU4vWrbLK
"Nearly five million children have been born in Syria since 2011. They have known nothing but war and conflict," stresses the UN agency's representative in Syria, Viktor Nylund.
